Reuters poll shows unanimous forecast for December Fed hike of 25 basis points

A 25 basis point interest rate rise on 9 December, lifting the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, is expected by all 101 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll conducted on 6-10 November. The respondents were unanimous on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move.

Beyond December, however, views diverge. For a narrow majority of 56 out of 101 economists, that increase would bring the current tightening cycle to an end. At least two further rises after December are expected by the remaining 45, a group that includes more than half of the primary dealers polled.

On medium-term inflation risks, a separate finding showed that 29 of 37 economists had not altered their assessment following the midterm elections.

Even if October inflation eases, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that he would “still support a 25 basis point increase” in December. Should monthly core CPI register around 0.3% or more, however, he said “a stronger policy move may be needed”, adding that the Fed should consider a half-point rise in those circumstances.

Inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to stay above 3% in the coming quarters, according to the poll’s median forecasts. A return to the Fed’s 2% target is not anticipated before 2028. Average PCE inflation is projected at 3.5% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, with both forecasts marginally higher than last month’s estimates.

US economic growth is forecast to slow to an annualised 2.2% in the fourth quarter from 3.4% in the third, the poll showed. For the full year, economists nudged their growth projections higher to 2.4% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.