AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls Target Breakout as 100-day SMA Near 0.7035 Presents Resistance

• The 100-day SMA remains a key resistance barrier as AUD/USD struggles to break higher.
• USD support from geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish Fed expectations limits the pair’s gains.
• Expectations of an RBA rate rise underpin the Aussie, with attention still centred on the FOMC meeting.

Above the psychological 0.7000 level, AUD/USD remains supported during the first half of the European session, despite easing from the one-month high reached earlier on Monday. The pair has been unable to clear the pivotal 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance decisively. With major central bank and economic releases due this week, traders appear reluctant to take sizeable directional positions.

Wednesday brings Australia’s consumer inflation figures, followed by the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. Thursday’s advance US Q3 GDP report and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will also draw close attention as traders assess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy trajectory. That assessment will help shape the US Dollar’s (USD) direction and give AUD/USD a meaningful steer.

For now, expectations of another US interest rate rise by the year-end could keep the safe-haven US Dollar supported. Those expectations reflect inflation risks from volatile oil prices, while lingering geopolitical uncertainty provides an additional potential source of support. Nevertheless, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to limit AUD/USD’s downside, suggesting caution before concluding that the pair has peaked.

On the technical front, resistance at the 100-day SMA of 0.7033 continues to restrain AUD/USD, although the pair is holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its latest decline. A slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading, alongside a Relative Strength Index (RSI) that has edged into the upper half of its range at 52.9, points to a tentative recovery. Overhead resistance, however, still limits that improvement in momentum.

Should AUD/USD clear the 100-day SMA at 0.7033, the 50.0% retracement at 0.7064 would be the next level in view. Further resistance lies at the 61.8% retracement of 0.7105 and the 78.6% retracement of 0.7162, followed by the full-recovery barrier at 0.7236. Initial support sits at the 38.2% retracement of 0.7024; below that are the 23.6% retracement at 0.6974 and the recent cycle low near 0.6893.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD remains below resistance on the daily chart