UK Gilts outperform following Budget – Deutsche Bank

Since the Autumn Budget, 10-year UK gilt yields have fallen markedly, supported by lower oil prices and increased equity market volatility, according to a Deutsche Bank Research note by Shreyas Gopal, Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan.

UK gilts pull ahead of global peers

"10y gilt yields have fallen almost 25bps since the Autumn Budget. Global factors, such as the welcome fall in oil prices, have undoubtedly played a large role in this fall in borrowing costs, alongside an increase in equity market volatility."

"10y gilt yields have fallen by about 12bps more than their US and German equivalents, partly due to the event meeting our three pre-Budget benchmarks around headroom, near-term consolidation, and total gilt issuance."

"This relative outperformance over the past two weeks is even more notable given it has occurred either side of a more hawkish than expected Bank of England meeting last week – when UK bond yields rose by 5bps more than its peers. As such, even if not quite as stark as last year’s post-Budget gilt outperformance, we expect the Chancellor will be content with the market reaction to his first Budget."

(An editor reviewed this article, which was produced with the assistance of an Artificial Intelligence tool. Find out more.)