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US Dollar: Near-term support to give way to weakness later – ING
With US growth strong and inflation above 3%, ING’s Chris Turner expects a hawkish Federal Reserve to help support the US Dollar (USD) into early 2027. In his view, a retreat in headline inflation towards the Fed’s 2% target should then bring short-dated US rates lower.
Dollar Draws Support From Hawkish Fed Into 2027
"The dollar should stay supported by strong US growth, high inflation and a Fed threatening to tighten before weakening next spring as inflation falls."
"Our base call assumes that the Federal Reserve stays hawkish in the first quarter, as decent US growth and above-3% inflation keep money markets pricing in the threat of an extended tightening cycle."
"That turns in the second quarter, when energy-driven base effects drop out of headline inflation and a return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target sees short-dated US rates move meaningfully lower."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Learn more.)
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