WTI Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish below 100-SMA resistance near $86.80

• Below its overnight swing high, WTI struggles to extend its intraday recovery.
• With further geopolitical developments awaited, traders hold off on taking new directional positions.
• Further declines remain the path of least resistance, according to the bearish technical picture.

A recovery above $86.00 in the first half of Thursday's European session reflects renewed buying on dips in West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil price benchmark. Yet the rebound has failed to gather momentum, leaving the commodity below the previous day's swing high while traders wait for fresh developments in the Middle East crisis.

A series of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island was reported, while Tehran targeted ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff, said Tehran had shut the strategic Strait of Hormuz and would reopen it only on the orders of the leader of the revolution. Crude oil prices consequently retain some support from the geopolitical risk premium.

Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough to bring both the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war to an end nevertheless persist among investors. At the same time, an increase in US crude stocks has heightened concerns over a potential supply glut, discouraging bullish traders from taking aggressive positions in oil. US production hit a fresh record in the week ending 30 October, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated an increase of about 9 million barrels in US commercial crude inventories in the week ending 6 November.

Trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $86.81 leaves crude oil's near-term technical outlook bearish. Momentum signals also point to weakness: the Relative Strength Index (14) is close to the low-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero and its histogram is negative, suggesting continued downward pressure. Immediate structural support, however, lies at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of $85.61.

Should that support give way decisively, the next Fibonacci support levels would come into view at $81.26 (61.8%) and $75.06 (78.6%), ahead of a more distant structural floor around $67.17. Any recovery would initially face resistance at the 100-day SMA of $86.81, then the 38.2% retracement of $89.96. Only a sustained move above those levels would temper the prevailing bearish bias and clear a route towards the 23.6% retracement of $95.34. For now, the cycle high area around $104.04 remains a distant hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI daily price chart