Cardano Price Forecast: On-chain and derivatives weakness point to further ADA downside

Cardano extends its decline, trading below $0.169 on Friday, with losses nearing 4% so far this week.
Weakening derivatives metrics and bearish on-chain indicators support the ongoing correction.
The deteriorating technical outlook suggests further downside risks for ADA.

Cardano (ADA) extends losses, trading below $0.169 on Friday, with losses nearing 4% so far this week. Moreover, ADA is heading into its sixth consecutive weekly correction, down more than 30% since early October. Weakening derivatives metrics and bearish on-chain indicators point to declining market participation, while the technical outlook suggests further downside risks as sellers maintain control.

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Derivatives data shows bearish bias

Derivatives data shows a bearish bias for Cardano. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for ADA reads 0.86 on Monday, nearing the lowest level over a month. A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders bet that asset prices will fall.

Cardano long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass

In addition, Cardano’s funding rate flipped negative on Thursday and reads -0.0015% on Friday, indicating shorts are paying longs and suggesting a bearish outlook.

Cardano funding rate chart. Source: Coinglass

On-chain metrics show cautionary signs

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a cautious outlook for Cardano. ADA’s spot and futures markets show large whale orders alongside heating conditions. Both markets also show sell-side dominance. These highlight a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among ADA traders.

Cardano summary chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Cardano technical outlook: Bears to push ADA lower

Cardano price trades at $0.168 on Friday, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains decisively below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $0.203, $0.208 and $0.229, respectively.

Momentum remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping toward oversold territory near 28. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays negative with a flat histogram, suggesting persistent downside pressure rather than an imminent reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the horizontal barrier near $0.183, ahead of a dense EMA cluster between $0.203 and $0.229, while higher resistances are seen at $0.236, $0.245 and $0.296.

On the downside, the next notable support is the horizontal floor at $0.156, and a clear break beneath this level would expose additional selling risk within the prevailing downtrend.