EUR/USD: Geopolitics and ECB path – DBS

DBS Group economist Philip Wee highlights that EUR/USD fell 4% to 1.1415 in early March as Iran-related tensions boosted safe-haven Dollar demand. Markets price two ECB hikes in June and September, and unless the ECB pushes back, EUR/USD is expected to find support near 1.1390. The ECB is seen monitoring geopolitics calmly while watching inflation expectations.

Euro pressured but key support eyed

"EUR/USD was pressured during the first half of March, retreating 4% to 1.1415. This correction is primarily due to the geopolitical premium driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which prompted a flight to safety into USD. "

TMGM талдауы: Қаржы нарығы жаңалықтары, экономикалық күнтізбе және нарықтық шолулар

"EUR’s trajectory this week hinges on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on March 19. Currently, the market is pricing in two 25-bps rate hikes for this year, specifically in June and September."

"Unless the ECB explicitly pushes back against this hawkish pricing, we expect EUR/USD to find support near the pivotal low of 1.1390 on August 1."

"ECB President Christine Lagarde asserted that the governing council will do everything necessary to prevent a repeat of the 2022-23 inflation spiral."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

НАҒЫЗ ДӘРЕЖЕЛЕР

Атауы / Тикері
График
% Өзгеріс / Баға
GBPUSD
1 күндік өзгеріс
-0.61%
1.33458
EURUSD
1 күндік өзгеріс
-0.49%
1.11642
USDJPY
1 күндік өзгеріс
+0.42%
158.834
AUDUSD
1 күндік өзгеріс
-0.70%
0.68638