GBP: Sluggish UK growth supports March cut risk – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts note that UK GDP for December matched expectations at 0.1% month-on-month, but downward revisions to November left Q4 growth at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, below consensus and Bank of England projections. The bank notes narrow sectoral strength and a sluggish broader economy, suggesting this could influence marginal MPC voters toward a potential rate cut in March.

Soft data may sway MPC doves

"Index of Services had a very similar story, being above expectations in December at 0.3% m/m, but flat and disappointing on a 3m/3m basis. Furthermore, December's strength was idiosyncratic to the transport, administrative, and wholesale trade sectors, which doesn't give much comfort in broad based growth."

TMGM tahlili: Moliyaviy bozor yangiliklari, iqtisodiy kalendar va bozor tahlillari

"UK GDP in December was in line with consensus at 0.1% m/m. However, with November's strength being revised down, Q4 ended on a downside note at 0.1% q/q, which is below both consensus and MPR projections of 0.2% q/q. "

"Ultimately, there is enough evidence to suggest that the economy had been sluggish of late, which could further add to the MPC's tie-breaking voters' analysis for a cut in March."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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