AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Aussie approaches two-month lows at 1.2265 after dropping below 1.2300

A fall of nearly 0.7% on Monday takes AUD/NZD below 1.2300 to new three-week lows.
A narrow lead for the coalition government in provisional results from Sunday's elections lifts the New Zealand Dollar on Monday.
The key support zone between 1.2265 and 1.2270 is now in focus for bears.

Provisional results pointing to a narrow victory for New Zealand’s governing coalition in the general election strengthened the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Monday, accelerating the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) decline against it. With AUD/NZD down 0.7% so far on the day and reaching session lows just below 1.2300, bears are eyeing the 1.2265-1.2270 zone at the lower end of the past two months’ trading range.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A narrow parliamentary majority is indicated by the initial New Zealand election results, which give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party and his coalition partner, the Labour Party, 67 of the 131 seats. The final outcome will not be available until 27 November, however. Leaders of the major parties said negotiations would not begin before then.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% year-on-year in October, down from 0.9% in September, as Monday’s macroeconomic releases delivered a mixed picture. By contrast, the Producer Price Index jumped 5.7% year-on-year to its highest level in more than four years. Following the releases, both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars gained ground.

Technical Analysis: Bears Target Key Support Around 1.2265

Below the descending channel’s lower boundary, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.2299 as the retreat from its late October highs continues. The 4-hour momentum indicators remain firmly bearish: the Relative Strength Index (14) is approaching, but has not yet reached, oversold territory. Meanwhile, widening red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest a risk of further losses before a meaningful rebound.

With the pair below 1.2300, bears are likely to consider another test of the 8 September and 16 October lows around 1.2265-1.2270. Beyond that zone, the 4 September low of 1.2220 would become the next downside target, though it appears somewhat beyond reach over the coming sessions.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near 1.2335 at the channel’s lower boundary. Next comes the former support zone ahead of 1.2375, marked by the 5 and 6 November lows, followed by the 1.2425 area, where Friday’s high coincides with the channel’s upper boundary.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

New Zealand Dollar Records Its Strongest Gain Against the US Dollar Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recorded its strongest performance today versus the US Dollar. The table sets out its percentage change against each currency.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.38%	-0.47%	-0.38%	-0.26%	-0.41%	-0.99%	-0.31%
EUR	0.38%		-0.09%	0.00%	0.12%	-0.03%	-0.62%	0.07%
GBP	0.47%	0.09%		0.11%	0.20%	0.05%	-0.54%	0.15%
JPY	0.38%	0.00%	-0.11%		0.12%	-0.03%	-0.62%	0.07%
CAD	0.26%	-0.12%	-0.20%	-0.12%		-0.15%	-0.74%	-0.05%
AUD	0.41%	0.03%	-0.05%	0.03%	0.15%		-0.59%	0.10%
NZD	0.99%	0.62%	0.54%	0.62%	0.74%	0.59%		0.69%
CHF	0.31%	-0.07%	-0.15%	-0.07%	0.05%	-0.10%	-0.69%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read NZD (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the New Zealand Dollar on the left and follow that row across to the US Dollar column; the intersecting cell gives the percentage change for that pair.