Could Bitcoin face downside risks ahead of US midterm elections as historical sell-offs fuel concerns?

• Bitcoin remains above its 200-day EMA at $76,459, trading just below $78,000 on Monday as markets await Tuesday’s US midterm elections.
• The November US midterm elections coincided with Bitcoin declines of 16% in 2022 and 37% in 2018.
• Sustained inflows into BTC spot ETFs could provide an unexpected counterweight to the historical pattern of midterm-related losses.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces potential pressure from the US midterm elections just a week after the $6 billion hack from Binance. Congressional polls have historically been unfavourable for both Bitcoin and the president’s party. Only twice in the last 22 midterms has the ruling party added House seats, while the three latest elections have coincided with Bitcoin’s bear-market bottoms. 

With the next midterms scheduled for Tuesday, 3 November, the wider crypto market is weighing the question: “Will Bitcoin extend its losses after the elections?”

Why has the US electoral cycle weighed on Bitcoin?

Corrections in Bitcoin’s price have historically accompanied US midterm elections. Within just 13 days of the November 2022 polls, BTC had fallen to its 2022 bear-market low of $15,476. Following the 2018 and 2014 elections, the corresponding bottoms of $3,156 and $171 came in 39 days and 71 days, respectively.

As FXStreet previously explained, the correction towards the end of midterm years fits Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Bitcoin halvings coincide with US presidential elections, placing the November midterm polls at the centre of BTC’s four-year cycle. Historically, this has been a phase when the market is nearing or reaching a cyclical bear-market bottom.

The final quarter has also proved difficult for Bitcoin in US midterm years. According to CoinGlass data, November has generally delivered relatively strong performance, with average gains of 34%. Yet the 2022 and 2018 midterms brought declines of 16% and 36%, respectively. Further December losses of 3% and 6% left the final quarter down 14% and 43%.

In the 2014 midterm year, by contrast, Bitcoin gained 11% in November before losing 15% in December, leaving a net decline of 17% over the final three months. 

A repeat of the historical cycle could bring a steep Bitcoin correction by the end of 2026, putting the annual low of $57,800 back in view. At the same time, the shrinking interval between voting and bear-market bottoms suggests that a swift recovery could limit the downside.

Can Bitcoin spot ETFs counter the bearish outlook?

With no institutional inflows, Bitcoin’s performance around November elections has largely been bearish. The presence of Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), however, could alter that pattern this year. 

Since their launch in January 2024, ETF inflows have had a substantial influence on Bitcoin’s spot price. As of 30 October, Bitcoin ETFs held total net assets of $98 billion, below their July 2025 peak of $152 billion.

If Bitcoin spot ETFs attract inflows during November and December, these could cushion the impact of a change in control of the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

Can Bitcoin break the midterm pattern?

In US politics, the midterm curse appears likely to continue. Kalshi’s midterm forecast data strongly favours the Democratic Party gaining control of both chambers of Congress, assigning a 94% probability to a Democratic majority in the House and a 74% probability in the Senate. 

For Bitcoin, however, institutional inflows will determine the bearish impact. Holding the crucial 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) baseline at $76,459 would be the ultimate signal that the leading digital asset has finally overcome its midterm curse. A break below this support could send Bitcoin back to its annual low of $57,800, or lower.