Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC stalls around $80,000 as geopolitical tensions dampen risk appetite

• Bitcoin hovers around $80,500 on Monday after three straight weeks of correction.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded $301 million in net inflows last week, breaking a two-week outflow streak.
• Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to push oil prices higher, stoking inflation concerns and dampening risk appetite.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $80,500 at the time of writing on Monday, after extending its correction for three consecutive weeks. Despite this price weakness, institutional demand showed signs of a comeback with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording $301.2 million in net inflows last week, breaking a two-week outflow streak.

However, rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel inflation concerns and dampen risk appetite, keeping pressure on the Crypto King.

Institutional demand shows early signs of a comeback

Institutional demand showed some signs of optimism last week, despite the price pullback. CoinGlass Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $301.2 million last week, breaking a two-week outflow streak. Despite this improvement in demand, BTC price continued its pullback, down over 2% last week and ending with three straight weeks of correction since early October. If these inflows continue and intensify through this week, they could help cushion the ongoing price decline.

Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices weigh on BTC

Crude oil prices have jumped to the highest level since September 15, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $103.28 per barrel on Friday amid supply concerns driven by attacks in Saudi Arabia and tensions involving Iran. 

In the latest developments, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen vowed on Sunday that they will keep attacking Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. 

Meanwhile, stalled US-Iran negotiations are keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated, adding further upward pressure on oil prices. Persistently higher energy costs could fuel inflation concerns, dampening risk appetite and capping BTC's upside potential.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC shows weakening signs

The Crypto King hovers around $80,400 on Monday, after a 2.39% correction last week and marking the third straight week of losses since early October.

If BTC continues its correction, it could extend losses toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $78,661 (drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199), which roughly coincides with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,817.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart stands near 54, pointing downward toward the neutral 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum is cooling. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, although its bars are weakening. This suggests broader upside momentum remains intact but is losing strength amid nearby resistance and the ongoing pullback.

On the other hand, if BTC recovers, it could extend the advance toward the 50% retracement level of $87,823, then the 100-week SMA at $89,386.

On the daily chart, BTC is consolidating in a neutral stance, holding above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $77,691 and $76,306, respectively, but remaining capped by the 50-day EMA at $80,816. Price between these trend filters suggests a broad bullish backdrop tempered by near-term hesitation. At the same time, the daily RSI at 43 indicates fading momentum, and the MACD remains below zero, hinting at subdued bullish momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA at $80,816, with a stronger barrier at the horizontal level around $85,000, where previous supply could reassert itself.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 100-day EMA at $77,691, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 200-day EMA near $76,306, and a daily close below these underlying averages would likely tilt the near-term bias back toward a more bearish configuration.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)