AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 0.7000 with 100-day EMA pivotal ahead of RBA

• China’s disappointing official PMIs, released over the weekend, prompt renewed selling in AUD/USD.
• The USD gains support from geopolitical uncertainty, adding to the pressure on spot prices.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, the technical picture calls for caution among bearish traders.

A decline of around 0.15% on the day leaves AUD/USD trading near 0.7020 in the Asian session as the new week begins. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) due to announce its decision on Tuesday, however, traders may hold back from taking new directional positions.

Persistent inflationary pressures underpin widespread expectations that the Australian central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the close of its November meeting. The Aussie nevertheless faces some downward pressure following the release of disappointing official PMIs from China over the weekend. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty supports the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), adding to selling pressure on AUD/USD.

With AUD/USD still trading below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7046 and now beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7026, the technical picture suggests the recent recovery is running out of momentum. Momentum oscillators remain constructive, however. Their readings point to consolidation rather than a decisive break lower, suggesting that aggressive bearish traders should exercise some caution.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive and above its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades close to the neutral 50 level. Should the pair fall through the psychological 0.7000 mark, immediate support could emerge at the 23.6% retracement at 0.6976. A more pronounced decline would bring the structural low near 0.6894 into view, where buyers may seek to re-establish a medium-term floor.

Any advance would first encounter resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7026, ahead of the 50.0% level at 0.7067 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.7107. Further up, the 78.6% barrier at 0.7165 and the cycle high at 0.7239 strengthen the broader supply zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD price action on the daily chart