Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: BTC bulls defend $80K and XAU holds $4,000 as Fed approaches

• With the Fed's interest rate decision approaching, Bitcoin holds above $80,000 but finds little upward momentum.
• Macroeconomic concerns leave Gold sellers largely in control, although prices remain above $4,000.
• The Fed's rate announcement and Chair Warsh's press conference dominate traders' attention.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, due later on Wednesday, remains the central focus as risk aversion shapes trading in Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD). Bitcoin edges down towards $80,000, while Gold stays above $4,000.

Following the monetary policy announcement, short-term support levels are likely to shape price direction. Gold is moving towards $4,100, while Bitcoin stands above the key psychological supply level of $82,000.

For XAU/USD, a daily close under $4,000 could strengthen sellers' control. Meanwhile, a prolonged BTC correction below $80,000 could prompt a further sell-off, with macroeconomic worries and buyer exhaustion among the contributing factors.

Fed rate announcement keeps sentiment under pressure

A 91% probability of unchanged rates in the 3.75-4.00% range is priced in by traders, underscoring the broad consensus ahead of the Fed's forthcoming interest rate announcement. The decision remains the market's main focus.

In its weekly 'Ahead of the Curve' report, K33 Research said: “Tomorrow’s FOMC is priced at 89% for no change, but markets expect hikes by year end and more next year. The midterms add to the noise and are likely contributing to the heavy chop in BTC lately,”

Once the decision is out, attention will turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference for indications of the central bank's policy path. Economists are notably attaching greater probability to a rate rise in December, a prospect that could weigh on risk assets.

In emailed commentary, CoinRoutes Co-founder and CEO Ian Weisberger described the backdrop: “This is a nervy week for crypto,” adding, “Traders face a Fed rate decision, results from the biggest tech companies in the world, and around $12 billion worth of Bitcoin bets expiring on Friday. Then the US midterms land next Tuesday.”

Wednesday's crypto Fear & Greed Index reading puts appetite for digital assets at 51, in Neutral territory, despite the macroeconomic concerns. That represents only a slight rise from the previous day's 48. The improvement remains modest against last week's Greed reading of 63 and last month’s 74.

Bitcoin technical analysis: Price tests short-term support

At $80,812, Bitcoin sits only slightly above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $80,805. Overhead, the middle line of the 20-day Bollinger Bands at $81,908 continues to limit gains. With no decisive recovery above that mid-band and only thin support from the rising short-term EMA, the overall bias remains neutral-to-bearish.

Caution is also warranted by the momentum readings: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 45, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero. Together, they indicate that attempts to advance could continue to encounter selling.

The first resistance level is the middle Bollinger Band near $81,907. A daily close above it would clear a path towards the upper band at around $84,072, the next upside target. Immediate downside support comes from the 50-day EMA at $80,805. A sustained move beneath it would bring the lower Bollinger Band near $79,744 into view, where buyers would be expected to return in an effort to limit a deeper correction.

Gold technical analysis: XAU retains crucial support

Trading at $4,050, Gold retains a bearish short-term bias beneath a concentration of resistance: the 50-day EMA at $4,201 and the middle Bollinger Band near $4,120. The Parabolic SAR, at $4,108, is also above the spot price, underlining the layers of resistance constraining the market. A negative MACD reading, alongside an RSI just below 40, indicates that downward momentum persists.

The lower Bollinger Band around $4,005 offers the first support. A decisive breach would leave scope for a deeper correction towards lower psychological levels. To the upside, buyers must first recover the Parabolic SAR at $4,108 and then the Bollinger mid-line at $4,120. Only daily closes above the 50-day EMA at $4,203 and subsequently the upper Bollinger Band near $4,234 would begin to relieve the prevailing bearish pressure and suggest a more lasting bullish reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)