Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC tumbles to six-week low as XAU slides below $3,950 to one-year low

• Six-week lows near $77,000 are being tested as Bitcoin records a second successive day of losses following the Binance security breach.
• Below $3,950, Gold extends its correction as selling pressure undermines an already weakening technical picture.
• A $6.3 billion hack has been reported by Binance, which has frozen $3 billion with support from blockchain partners.

A $6.3 billion hack reported by Binance has kept the wider cryptocurrency market under selling pressure, leaving Bitcoin (BTC) near a six-week low of $77,000 on Friday. Sentiment remains subdued following the security breach, with Bitcoin down for a second consecutive day and crypto liquidations amounting to $1.5 billion over 24 hours.

With the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving interest rates at 3.75-4.00%, a broader risk-off mood continues to prevail. Against that backdrop, Gold (XAU/USD) has continued its decline below $3,940 to test its one-year low.

Sticky inflation remained a concern for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. He said there had been “essentially no progress” towards the central bank’s 2% target and reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability.

In emailed commentary, Vladimir Tikhomirov, founder of Theorem and co-founder of Algebra, said: “I view the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged as something the market had largely expected. And, although some may interpret this as a sign that the tightening cycle is over, I wouldn’t say the pause marks its end. Inflation is still high,” adding, “So the possibility of another rate increase in December is something the market has to account for.”

Binance pursues asset recovery after $6 billion security breach

Roughly $6.3 billion is reported to have been affected by the breach at Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange. To give itself time for an internal investigation and review, the company temporarily halted deposits and withdrawals.

According to Binance, a DevOps engineer’s laptop may have been compromised. This may have allowed the attacker to enter a container service through which unauthorised withdrawal transactions were submitted.

In a post on X, Binance said: “We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak,”

Approximately $3 billion has been frozen on-chain through Binance’s work with blockchain partners, including Tether, Circle and Ripple, according to updates from the exchange.

User assets remain safe, Binance has stressed. It says its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) programme, together with the company’s own assets, will cover all losses.

Alongside the halt to withdrawals and deposits, Binance revoked authorisation for the affected address. The exchange also worked with law enforcement and blockchain partners to trace and recover the funds.

As the industry matures, cryptocurrency scams and fraud continue to pose a significant challenge. The Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report points to a 162% annual increase. On-chain theft through cryptocurrency scams totalled $14 billion, while AI-enabled schemes increased by 1,400% annually.

In written commentary, The Hashgraph Group CEO, Stefan Deiss, said: “The sheer scale of this hack makes it look like a one-off, but it isn't. AI is helping attackers find weaknesses faster than companies can fix them, and attacks like this are becoming more common, not less,”

Technical analysis: Bitcoin faces the risk of further declines

At $77,310, Bitcoin remains below both the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $77,811 and the 50-day EMA at $80,581, maintaining a bearish near-term outlook. However, the pair continues to trade above the 200-day EMA of $76,476, indicating that the wider uptrend remains intact despite the pullback. Momentum is weakening: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, reinforcing the downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased towards oversold territory at 34.

The 100-day EMA near $77,811 presents the first resistance, ahead of a firmer obstacle at the 50-day EMA around $80,581. Sellers could regain control at these levels if prices rebound. On the downside, the SuperTrend line at $84,056, previously a bullish trigger area, marks deeper demand, while the 200-day EMA at $76,476 provides more immediate trend support. A daily close beneath the latter would be likely to prolong the downward correction.

Technical analysis: Gold remains under sellers’ control

At $3,941, Gold retains a bearish bias, trading well below its short-, medium- and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs). Overhead resistance comes from the 50-day EMA at $4,186, the 100-day EMA at $4,258 and the 200-day EMA at $4,273.80.

With the Parabolic SAR at $4,083, the scope for rallies appears limited. A negative and declining MACD reading also points to continued downward pressure. Although the RSI of 33 sits just above oversold territory, indicating an extended sell-off, the near-term trend remains in the bears’ hands.

The break level of the descending resistance trendline near $4,032 provides the first upside obstacle, followed by the Parabolic SAR ceiling at $4,083. Further up, the 50-day EMA at $4,186, the 100-day EMA at $4,258 and the 200-day EMA at $4,274 create a concentrated supply zone likely to restrain any corrective recovery.

With no clearly defined structural support in the dataset, the recent low near current prices serves as the immediate downside reference. A sustained move below $3,941 would likely leave room for further losses, as momentum indicators remain tilted in the bears’ favour.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)