Bitcoin leverage reaches 99th percentile as correlation with Nasdaq strengthens

• At 353,000 BTC, open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures stood in the 99th percentile of readings over two years.
• Elevated open interest could heighten the risk of forced liquidations and buying by short sellers, magnifying Bitcoin's price swings, K33 warned.
• A rise to 0.75 put Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq in the 99th percentile of readings since 2020.

Leverage in Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing a level seldom recorded over the past two years, K33 reported on Tuesday, as the leading cryptocurrency extends its decline.

Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest rises to the 99th percentile

Notional open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures rose to 353,000 BTC, according to K33’s head of research Vetle Lunde. That puts the reading in the 99th percentile of observations over the past two years.

Over the past 30 days, open interest has increased by 12% despite a 10% fall in Bitcoin across the same period. According to K33, comparable levels of open interest were recorded on just 1.2% of trading days over the past two years.

“The leverage buildout likely reflects a combination of hedging activity and speculative positioning. Funding rates have trended higher on both Binance and Bybit, suggesting growing demand for long exposure as BTC tests key support levels,” K33 wrote.

Despite this, current positioning does not signal an overwhelmingly bullish market, the firm cautioned.

A further fall in price could compel traders to sell their long positions and put additional pressure on Bitcoin, K33 noted. A rebound, by contrast, could prompt short sellers to buy back their positions, supporting further price gains.

Several significant market turning points over the past 18 months have coincided with open interest exceeding 350,000 BTC, the report said. These include Bitcoin's October 2025 peak, the November sell-off and the formation of its bottom in late June 2025.

“The historical pattern is noteworthy. Elevated open interest tends to coincide with extended price moves, often preceding reversals or periods of substantial volatility,” K33 added.

Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq climbs to a four-year extreme

Alongside the build-up in derivatives, Bitcoin has become more closely aligned with US technology shares. Its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq rose to 0.75 last Thursday, K33 highlighted, putting it in the 99th percentile of observations since 2020.

Last week's equity sell-off brought that correlation into sharper focus. On Thursday, Nasdaq futures suffered their largest daily fall since March 2020, dropping 7.1%, while Bitcoin lost 5.5%.

The report noted: “Such elevated correlations tend to emerge during periods of pronounced risk aversion, when investors broadly reduce exposure to risky assets,”

Whether the Nasdaq can maintain its recovery could determine Bitcoin's near-term direction, according to K33's historical analysis.

Bitcoin gained in eight of nine instances in which a strong Nasdaq rebound persisted, delivering a median return of 2.9%. By contrast, when the recovery faltered, Bitcoin fell in all seven cases, recording a median loss of 21%.

K33 said: "The near-term outlook for BTC thus appears heavily dependent on whether Nasdaq's rebound can be sustained,"

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $73,871 following a 1.4% decline over the past 24 hours.