Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC remains in consolidation below $80,000 with Middle East tensions and upcoming tech earnings in focus

• The 50-day EMA near $80,765 resisted a closing break on Monday, leaving Bitcoin trading below $80,000 on Tuesday.
• Monday brought modest inflows of $110.34 million into spot BTC ETFs; last week, Strive acquired 6,182 BTC while Strategy bought none.
• Upcoming hyperscaler earnings and events in the Middle East are likely to determine BTC’s next direction, according to QCP Capital.

With the $80,000 level still overhead, Bitcoin (BTC) remains below that threshold at the time of writing on Tuesday, having failed to secure a close above a key resistance zone on Monday.

Modest inflows returned to US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Monday. Corporate buying diverged last week: Strategy (MSTR) suspended its Bitcoin purchases, whereas Strive (ASST) acquired 6,182 BTC. For the Crypto King’s next directional move, QCP Capital points to forthcoming hyperscaler earnings and developments in the Middle East as likely drivers.

Institutional demand offers tentative bullish support

An inflow of $110.34 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday gave institutional demand a mildly positive start to the week, SoSoValue data showed. This followed last week’s net inflow of $301.2 million, which ended two consecutive weeks of outflows. Monday’s modest buying was not enough to underpin a recovery, although BTC could regain ground if inflows persist and gather pace over the course of the week.

In a Monday post on X, Lookonchain reported that Strive had bought 6,182 BTC last week while Strategy made no purchases. After several weeks of buying, Strategy’s decision to step aside contrasts with Strive’s increased purchases, signalling a change in institutional accumulation. Continued buying by Strive could absorb some selling pressure and offer BTC a measure of support.

Traders look for the next market catalyst

Forthcoming hyperscaler results and events in the Middle East are likely to carry more weight for Bitcoin’s next direction than the outcome of the October 27–28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, QCP Capital said in its Monday report.

Wednesday brings Q3 earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, with Amazon following on Thursday. QCP Capital said results that support the case for sustained heavy artificial intelligence (AI) investment could temper worries about hyperscaler valuations. A disappointing set of figures, by contrast, could prolong the current AI-driven market sell-off.

The analyst added: “Oil is the second driver. The US cut staff at Middle East embassies over the weekend, and US President Donald Trump said a strike on Iran could come as early as Sunday before ruling it out,”

For this week, QCP Capital set out three possible paths for Bitcoin. Its base case envisages the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving rates unchanged, with BTC trading within a $78,000 to $86,000 range.

Under the bullish scenario, earnings alleviate concerns over AI capital expenditure and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh moderates the December signal, bringing yields down. BTC would consequently recover the $80,000-$81,500 cost-basis band before advancing towards $86,000 and then $88,000-$90,000. 

The bearish scenario combines an escalation in the Middle East with either an unexpected rate rise or a press conference that locks in December. In that case, 10-year US Treasury yields would climb back above 5%, while BTC would fall through $78,000.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Momentum weakens beneath resistance

At $79,918 on Tuesday, Bitcoin remains above its 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), at $77,727 and $76,338 respectively, preserving a constructive medium-term outlook. The 50-day EMA at $80,765 nevertheless continues to restrain the price. Consolidation immediately below this dynamic resistance leaves the near-term bias neutral to slightly bearish.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, momentum readings remain subdued. They point to fading bullish pressure as buyers find it difficult to build on the earlier advance.

A daily close above the immediate resistance provided by the 50-day EMA near $80,765 would clear a path towards the horizontal barrier at $85,000. Selling interest seen previously at that level would be likely to return.

The first downside support lies at the 100-day EMA of $77,727. Below that, the 200-day EMA around $76,338 provides a deeper structural floor; losing this level would materially undermine the broader trend and leave BTC vulnerable to a more substantial correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)