Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC falls below $75,000 as markets await US CPI data

• Having closed below the key 200-day EMA near $76,444 last week, Bitcoin remains beneath $75,000 on Tuesday.
• Tuesday’s US CPI release could reshape expectations for Fed rate rises and spark renewed BTC volatility as market participants await the figures.
• Monday brought net outflows of $201.08 million from US-listed spot ETFs, whereas Strategy increased its treasury holdings by 1,036 BTC.

Following last week’s close below a key technical support zone, Bitcoin (BTC) is still under pressure beneath $75,000 on Tuesday. Institutional demand presents a mixed picture: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to suffer outflows, but Strategy (MSTR) has added 1,036 BTC to its treasury. 

Tuesday’s forthcoming US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are now the focus for traders. The release could alter expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate rises and bring another bout of volatility to the leading cryptocurrency.

US CPI release puts risk assets in focus

The closely watched US CPI figures could decide whether risk assets such as BTC rebound or suffer a sharp extension of their losses.

Stronger-than-forecast US payrolls last week bolstered expectations of interest rates remaining higher for longer at the Fed. Traders now assign a probability of over 80% to another increase in US borrowing costs in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Although this macroeconomic backdrop continues to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on risk assets such as BTC, dollar bulls are holding off on fresh positions until the US CPI release. 

Further guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory will be sought from Tuesday’s inflation figures. Should the reading exceed expectations, the prospect of a rate rise could strengthen, adding to the pressure on risk assets.

Geopolitical uncertainty is also curbing risk appetite, with conflicting messages about US-Iran peace talks sustaining a risk premium. Describing the conflict as effectively over, US President Donald Trump said there was positive momentum towards ending the war on Iran and that renewed strikes were quite unlikely. 

Reports of active negotiations were, however, rejected as fake news by Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. He repeated that ending the conflict requires Washington to accept Tehran’s seven conditions. The resulting geopolitical risk premium continues to favour the safe-haven USD while hampering BTC’s prospects for recovery.

Institutional demand weakens further

Net withdrawals of $201.08 million from BTC spot ETFs on Monday marked a weak start to the week for institutional Bitcoin demand, according to SoSoValue data. They followed outflows of $1.28 billion last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since the end of June. A continuation and acceleration of withdrawals over the course of this week could add pressure on BTC and deepen its price correction.

Corporate buying offered a contrast, as Michael Saylor disclosed on Monday that Strategy, his firm, had purchased 1,036 BTC. Its current holdings stand at 850,364 BTC alongside $4.9 billion in USD assets. The purchases indicate that companies are still accumulating Bitcoin, potentially providing a degree of support should BTC prices fall further.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC remains beneath 200-day EMA

At $74,746 on Tuesday, Bitcoin retains a bearish short-term bias while trading below the major exponential moving averages (EMAs). Closest above the spot price is the 200-day EMA at about $76,444. Above that, the 100-day EMA around $77,574 and the 50-day EMA near $79,141 form successive layers of overhead supply.

Momentum remains skewed downwards, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 36. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still negative, suggesting that rallies towards this cluster of EMAs are likely to encounter selling pressure.

Any advance faces initial resistance at the 200-day EMA around $76,444. The next hurdles are the 100-day EMA near $77,574 and the 50-day EMA near $79,141, ahead of a higher horizontal resistance level at roughly $85,000.

With no nearby support identified on the chart, a break beneath current levels would suggest a move towards the psychological support area around $70,000 before BTC stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)