Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq returns as macro pressures put $82,500 support at risk

• Rising US inflation and a sell-off in AI-related shares have coincided with a renewed strengthening of Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq.
• With 60% of the growth in Bitcoin options open interest since Q3 2025, IBIT options are mounting a challenge to Deribit.
• As volatility returns, Bitcoin is holding support at $82,500, though a sustained breach could leave the low $70,000 range exposed.

With macroeconomic pressures threatening support at $82,500, Bitcoin (BTC) is again showing a stronger correlation with the Nasdaq following last week’s decline alongside technology shares.

Bitcoin trades within a range as its Nasdaq correlation strengthens again

Following last week’s price moves, Bitcoin is once again tracking the technology-heavy Nasdaq more closely, K33 Research noted in a report published on Tuesday.

Hotter-than-expected US inflation figures and a steep sell-off in semiconductor shares preceded the renewed correlation, contributing to the Nasdaq’s weakest weekly performance since the week of 6 April 2025. Over the past week, Bitcoin lost roughly 2%, while average daily spot trading volume slipped 1% to $2.5 billion.

“Zooming out to a two-week horizon, BTC and Nasdaq returns sit at almost equal levels, pointing to a return to the relatively correlated regime seen from February to mid-August,” K33 wrote.

Although subdued activity raises the prospect of further choppy trading, the report maintained that Bitcoin remains attractively valued at current prices despite limited market participation.

The expanding role of options linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was also examined by K33. These have increasingly challenged crypto exchange Deribit’s position as the leading venue for Bitcoin options.

Since the third quarter of 2025, open interest in Bitcoin options has ranged from approximately 700,000 BTC to 1.1 million BTC. Around 60% of the increase has come from IBIT.

Before the launch of IBIT options, Deribit accounted for 70% of open interest; its share has since fallen to 43%.

At 434,922 BTC, IBIT’s options open interest was equivalent to approximately 54% of its Bitcoin assets under management.

“A ratio of 54% might seem extreme, but it is actually low compared to the largest ETFs on other assets,” the report stated.

Inflation risks put Bitcoin’s $82,500 support under pressure

Support at $82,500 is still holding for Bitcoin despite its renewed correlation with the Nasdaq, according to Wintermute’s Tuesday market update. Upcoming macroeconomic events could trigger volatility, the firm said, making it difficult for Bitcoin to remain within this range.

“The Fed next week, the midterms and Q3 earnings all land in the next few weeks, and we don’t think the range holds through them,” Wintermute wrote.

A sustained decline below $82,500 could bring the low $70,000 range into view, according to the report, which placed the breakout threshold at $87,000.

A move above $87,000 could be supported by a less aggressive response from the Federal Reserve alongside strong third-quarter earnings, Wintermute said. Conversely, higher yields and further weakness in technology shares could weigh on Bitcoin.

Weakness was becoming more pronounced among altcoins, the report noted, with its broader altcoin cohort losing 5.69% over the week.

“Altcoins are starting to feel heavy again, with the whole spectrum cohort selling off since topping around 14 days ago and down 5.69% on the week,” Wintermute added.

As inflows into altcoins weakened, capital was increasingly shifting towards Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), the firm observed. The only exception was higher-quality large-cap tokens, which drew some longer-term investors as liquidity increased.

Even a Bitcoin rally might not be enough to revive altcoins, Wintermute cautioned, while a wider market sell-off could expose them to additional losses.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 0.8% over the past 24 hours, trading at $82,600.