British Pound holds steady amid US jobs strength and looming election risks

• Despite firm US labour market figures, GBP/USD gains 0.10%.
• With US job openings at 7.5 million, Factory Orders rise sharply by 1.8%.
• Ahead of the US midterm elections, Sterling draws support from expectations of a BoE rate increase.

US factory figures and a softer US JOLTS report helped the US Dollar recover some of its earlier losses. Nevertheless, Pound Sterling is holding steady against the Dollar with a modest 0.10% gain as investors await the US midterm election results. GBP/USD is trading around 1.3420.

GBP/USD holds steady as firm US figures and geopolitical uncertainty restrain gains

September job openings increased to 7.5 million from 7.19 million, with the rate rising to 4.5% from 4.3%, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The hiring rate also edged up, reaching 3.4% from 3.3%, whereas the total separations rate held at 3.3%.

An accompanying rise in hiring made the increase in vacancies a positive signal. Separately, US Census Bureau figures showed that September Factory Orders increased by 1.8% month on month, compared with 0.3% previously.

The risk of geopolitical escalation is also restricting GBP/USD’s advance. Al Araby reported that Washington and Tehran had approved a draft MOU, but Iran disputed the claims. According to IRIB, Iran rejected reports suggesting it was close to reaching an agreement with the US.

Attention is now shifting to the US midterm elections, with investors uneasy about both the outcome and the White House’s reaction. Polymarket data put the Democrats’ chances of controlling the House of Representatives at 95%, alongside a 78% probability of winning a majority in the US Senate.

At 101.81, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is unchanged. The index tracks the Dollar against a basket of six currencies.

Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision is the focus for UK investors, with the Bank expected to raise interest rates for the first time since August 2023. Prime Terminal data indicate that money markets are pricing in three further rate increases for 2027.

US employment and services figures take centre stage

With no releases on the UK calendar, traders are set to focus on the US ADP Employment Change figures and October’s ISM Services PMI.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical signals retain a mildly bullish bias

Trading at 1.3412 on the daily chart, GBP/USD retains a mildly positive near-term bias. The spot rate sits above both the latest 50/100/200-day simple moving average cluster at 1.3371 and the nearby rising support trend line around 1.3360, indicating underlying buying interest on dips. At 58.5, the Relative Strength Index (14) remains in positive territory without approaching overbought levels, suggesting that upward momentum is still constructive rather than overstretched.

The area where descending trend-line reactions converge provides immediate resistance, with the latest rejections at 1.3508 and 1.3544. Beyond those levels, the more recent support trend-line break creates a higher hurdle at 1.3606. Initial support lies around the reclaimed moving average band at 1.3371, backed by the rising structural trend line at 1.3360. Holding consistently above these levels would preserve the bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)