Cardano Price Forecast: ADA faces further downside amid weak on-chain and derivatives signals

• With its losses for the week approaching 4%, Cardano continues to retreat and trades below $0.169 on Friday.
• Deteriorating derivatives data, alongside bearish on-chain signals, reinforces the current correction.
• Further losses remain a risk for ADA as its technical picture weakens.

Weekly losses are approaching 4% for Cardano (ADA), which continues to fall and trades below $0.169 on Friday. The token is also on course for its sixth successive weekly correction, having shed more than 30% since early October. Deteriorating derivatives data and bearish on-chain signals indicate waning market participation. With sellers still in control, the technical picture also points to the risk of further declines.

Cardano derivatives signal a bearish tilt

At 0.86 on Monday, CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for ADA is close to its lowest reading in over a month, reflecting a bearish tilt in Cardano derivatives. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for asset prices to decline.

Having turned negative on Thursday, Cardano’s funding rate stands at -0.0015% on Friday. This means short positions are paying long positions, pointing to a bearish outlook.

On-chain signals reinforce caution 

Large whale orders and heating conditions feature in both ADA’s spot and futures markets, according to CryptoQuant’s summary data. Selling also dominates in both markets. Together, these readings point to a cautious outlook for Cardano and a bearish, guarded mood among ADA traders.

Cardano technical outlook: Bears remain set to drive ADA lower

At $0.168 on Friday, Cardano retains a bearish short-term bias. Its price sits firmly beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which stand at $0.203, $0.208 and $0.229, respectively.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifting towards oversold territory near 28 underscores the weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, meanwhile, remains negative and its histogram is flat, signalling sustained downward pressure rather than a reversal in the near term.

Any recovery faces initial resistance at the horizontal barrier around $0.183, followed by a closely grouped set of EMAs between $0.203 and $0.229. Further resistance levels lie at $0.236, $0.245 and $0.296.

Below the current price, the next significant support lies at the horizontal floor of $0.156. A decisive break below that threshold would leave ADA vulnerable to further selling within the existing downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)