Crypto Today: Hawkish Fed tone dents sentiment as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP decline

• With the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged but retaining its hawkish stance, Bitcoin retreats to $80,000 on Thursday.
• A correction takes Ethereum towards its key 200-day EMA at $2,316; a close beneath it could lead to a deeper decline.
• Below the key $1.300 support level, XRP faces further downside risk if that support fails to hold.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to leave interest rates unchanged, accompanied by a hawkish tone, dampens sentiment across the cryptocurrency market on Thursday, prompting a pullback in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP). As BTC retreats towards $80,000, ETH nears its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,316 and XRP sits beneath support at $1.300. All three remain vulnerable to additional losses.

BTC, ETH and XRP retreat as Fed holds rates and maintains hawkish tone

Following its two-day October policy meeting, the Fed left its policy rate at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, although officials were not unanimous. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were among the two officials favouring a 25-basis-point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh, meanwhile, said incoming information would guide the Fed’s assessment of whether further action was necessary.

At his press conference, Warsh said officials have “made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

Warsh stressed: “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” adding: “That’s the reason the FOMC’s discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit,”

Although unchanged rates were already priced in, the hawkish tone and inflation concerns in the Fed’s forward guidance reinforce market caution and pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The CME FedWatch Tool put the probability of tightening at the December 9 meeting at 79.6% on Thursday, a modest increase from 78.33% on Tuesday. This move towards tighter monetary policy provides mild support for safe-haven assets: the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) above $102. By contrast, BTC, ETH and XRP fell to $80,000, $2,300 and $1.300, respectively, on Thursday as risk assets came under pressure.

Thursday’s stronger-than-forecast economic growth figures and persistent inflation readings also underpin the USD, limiting gains across the wider cryptocurrency market.

Annual US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation reached 3.6% YoY in September, up from August’s 3.4% and in line with market forecasts. The monthly PCE reading increased to 0.5% from 0.3% previously. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PCE rose 3.1% year on year and 0.3% on the month. Separately, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate, released the same day, showed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter. That exceeded both the second quarter’s 2.2% growth and market expectations of 3.2%.

Bitcoin ETFs attract inflows as Ethereum sees withdrawals and XRP demand remains subdued

Demand for digital asset investment products has been uneven this week. Wednesday brought $137.33 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to SoSoValue, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. Daily inflows recorded so far point to modest institutional buying, but their smaller scale compared with last week suggests investors remain cautious.

Institutional appetite for ETH, by contrast, displayed signs of weakening. Spot Ethereum ETFs registered a modest $21.41 million outflow on Wednesday, SoSoValue figures showed, extending withdrawals to a third consecutive day. 

For XRP, subdued institutional demand on Tuesday and Wednesday followed a modest $3.61 million outflow on Monday, pointing to waning demand and interest among traders.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin loses ground

At $80,227 on Thursday, Bitcoin remains supported above its 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $77,866 and $76,435 respectively. However, the 50-day EMA at $80,802 continues to limit the price.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to 43, the configuration points to a neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook and weakening upward momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also sits in negative territory, below its zero line, signalling diminished bullish pressure. Nevertheless, the broader uptrend’s foundation remains intact while the price holds above the longer-term EMAs.

The first upside hurdle is the 50-day EMA around $80,802. Beyond that lies horizontal resistance at $85,000, where earlier selling interest could return.

Initial significant support is provided by the 100-day EMA near $77,866, with the 200-day EMA around $76,435 forming a deeper structural floor. A daily close beneath these levels would strengthen the bearish outlook and create scope for a more substantial correction.

Technical analysis: Ethereum remains bearish near term as XRP falls beneath support

Trading at $2,320, Ethereum continues to display a bearish short-term bias. It has edged below the 100-day EMA at $2,361 and the 50-day EMA at $2,445, while holding on to support from the 200-day EMA at $2,316. ETH  is also back beneath the broken rising trendline reference around $2,360, with the horizontal $2,400 barrier still limiting advances. Meanwhile, an RSI of roughly 35 remains subdued. Alongside a negative but improving MACD line, this points to weak yet stabilising downward momentum, rather than a clear bullish reversal.

Immediate downside support lies effectively in the current trading area, underpinned by the 200-day EMA at $2,316. The horizontal level around $1,823 provides a deeper structural floor.

An advance would first encounter the former trendline and short-term pivot around $2,360, then horizontal resistance at $2,400. A sustained move beyond both would bring the 50-day EMA at $2,445 into view, followed by the higher resistance area near $2,770.

At $1.292, XRP retains a bearish short-term outlook, with the spot price below every key Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Overhead resistance is layered across the 100-day EMA at $1.332, the 50-day EMA at $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.371. Rallies therefore remain vulnerable while the price trades beneath this cluster.

Momentum signals are uneven. At 40, the RSI remains soft and below neutral, whereas the MACD has only just edged into positive territory. This suggests tentative stabilisation attempts, not a convincing bullish reversal.

The nearby horizontal $1.300 level provides the first upside obstacle, ahead of the 100-day EMA near $1.332 and the 50-day EMA at $1.357. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $1.371 adds to the broader ceiling on corrective rallies, before resistance at $1.540 and $1.900. The current dataset identifies no significant support below the prevailing price. Any further decline would therefore leave XRP vulnerable to renewed selling until fresh demand zones take shape on the chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)