Crypto Today: Ethereum and XRP encounter structural resistance while Bitcoin defends the 50-day EMA

• Above $81,000 on Friday, Bitcoin advances after holding support at the 50-day EMA.
• Around $2,400, Ethereum remains broadly rangebound, supported by a cluster of medium- and long-term moving averages.
• Following Thursday’s steep fall into the $1.30 demand zone, XRP rebounds to trade above $1.32.

Structural support near $80,000 has recently held for Bitcoin (BTC), underpinning the bullish outlook as the leading cryptocurrency makes steady gains above $81,000 on Friday. Ethereum (ETH) also inches upwards above $2,400. Having tested support near $1.30, Ripple (XRP) is trading above $1.32.

Markets await the Fed’s rate decision

An unchanged interest rate range of 3.75-4.00% is widely expected when the Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its decision on Wednesday. Following September’s 25-basis-point increase, market pricing puts the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaving rates on hold at about 92%.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of an October rate increase stands at 8%. A rise in December carries higher odds, however.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: "The FOMC meets 27-28 October, with the decision on Wednesday, 28 October. With inflation risk still elevated and risk assets already tightening financial conditions, the market will watch closely for any shift in the Fed's reaction function,"

At 50 on Friday, the crypto Fear & Greed Index has slipped into Neutral territory from the previous day’s reading of 68 in the Greed range, reflecting weaker appetite for digital asset investment products this week. The pullback coincides with increased volatility ahead of the Fed announcement, with investors remaining on the sidelines until the central bank’s policy direction becomes clear.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin retains its bullish outlook

At $81,862, Bitcoin remains above its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), preserving a bullish short-term outlook. Dynamic support lies at several levels below the spot price, including the 50-day EMA around $80,879 and the SuperTrend line near $79,664. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $77,529 and the 200-day EMA at $76,209 underpin the wider upward trend.

The momentum picture is less convincing. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting just under 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remaining in negative territory, further gains may develop slowly and take a corrective rather than impulsive form.

The first support level is the 50-day EMA at $80,879, ahead of the SuperTrend baseline at $79,664, where buyers may attempt to protect the existing bullish structure. A more substantial retreat would bring the 100-day EMA at $77,529 into view, followed by another layer of support at the 200-day EMA of $76,209.

As the daily chart offers no clearly defined indicator resistance, attention centres on Bitcoin’s ability to remain above this EMA cluster. Closing below the 50-day EMA on a daily basis would undermine the positive outlook. Staying above it, by contrast, would leave scope for the broader uptrend to resume gradually.

Crypto Finance also noted: "The $80,000-$81,000 area remains the line bulls have repeatedly defended, while $83,000 is the first level that would suggest buyers are beginning to regain control. Beyond that, the $85-$87,000 area remains the larger resistance zone that capped the September and early-October rally,"

Altcoin technical analysis: Ethereum and XRP seek a near-term rebound

Trading at $2,410, Ethereum remains above its 100-day EMA at $2,365 and 200-day EMA at $2,317, lending a modestly positive tone to the near-term outlook. The price has recovered the area near $2,368 where the rising support trendline was broken. Nevertheless, the 50-period EMA at $2,475 and SuperTrend resistance at $2,675 remain overhead, indicating that attempts to advance still face a ceiling.

Although the MACD remains negative, it has edged higher, while the RSI stands around 41. Taken together, these readings point to stabilising momentum rather than an impulsive bullish move.

The recovered trendline area near $2,368 provides the nearest support, with the 100-EMA at $2,365 just below it. Beyond these levels, the 200-EMA around $2,317 is another area where buyers may try to preserve the broader upward trend.

The 50-EMA near $2,475 presents the first resistance, followed by a more substantial obstacle at the SuperTrend level around $2,675. Clearing these barriers with a daily close would pave the way for a firmer continuation higher. Conversely, losing the $2,368-$2,365 support cluster would turn attention back to the $2,317 zone.

Despite its recent rebound from lower levels, XRP remains under pressure at $1.32. It continues to trade beneath the 100-day EMA at $1.34, the 50-day EMA at $1.37 and the 200-day EMA at $1.38, leaving the wider outlook bearish.

Well above the spot price, the SuperTrend indicator at $1.47 adds weight to the established downtrend. The RSI has recovered from oversold territory to near 43, but indicates only limited bullish momentum within a predominantly bearish structure.

The first resistance lies at the 100-day EMA of $1.34; a sustained close above this level would be required to relieve near-term selling pressure. Beyond it, the 50-day EMA at $1.37 and 200-day EMA at $1.38 create a concentrated supply zone. Only a convincing break through this cluster would point to a more lasting recovery, while the SuperTrend level of $1.47 remains a significant medium-term barrier.

Should momentum weaken, renewed selling would leave the pair vulnerable, as the daily chart shows no nearby support from moving averages or trendlines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Find out more.)