Dogecoin Price Forecast: ETF Outflows and Long Unwinding Leave DOGE at Risk of Further Declines

• After a decline of over 5% the previous day, Dogecoin steadies around $0.075 on Friday.
• Thursday’s $138,570 outflow from DOGE-focused ETFs marked a second consecutive day of withdrawals, pointing to weaker institutional demand.
• A 5% fall in Open Interest over the past 24 hours, alongside substantial long liquidations, points to a selling bias in derivatives markets.

ETF outflows exceeding $500,000 this week and futures Open Interest falling towards $1 billion point to weaker institutional and retail demand for Dogecoin (DOGE). At the time of writing on Friday, the meme coin trades around $0.0756, with further losses on hold after a decline of over 5% the previous day. DOGE’s technical outlook remains bearish, suggesting scope for a fall of roughly 10% towards the annual low of $0.0676.

Selling pressure weighs on Dogecoin ETFs and futures

Withdrawals from DOGE ETFs reached $138,570 on Thursday after $399,460 the previous day, according to SoSoValue data. The second consecutive day of outflows took this week’s total to $538,030, highlighting the challenges facing Dogecoin among both institutional and retail investors. Such withdrawals generally suggest that institutional investors are redeeming ETF shares, either to take profits or, in DOGE’s case, as holders face growing pressure to exit.

Among retail traders, caution amid wider market uncertainty has coincided with a decline in the notional value of outstanding DOGE futures positions. CoinGlass data puts futures Open Interest (OI) at $1.05 billion, down over 5% in the last 24 hours. When OI and spot prices fall together, this typically signals a selling bias among traders, potentially sustaining corrections over the short to medium term.

Liquidations over the same period totalled $18.67 million, of which $12.81 million came from long positions. These forced closures provide further evidence of growing bearish pressure on bullish positions.

Technical outlook: DOGE remains at risk of another lower low

 Having recovered from an earlier Friday low of $0.0722, Dogecoin is holding above $0.0750 at the time of writing. Its near-term outlook nevertheless remains bearish, with the price below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.0833 and the 200-day EMA at $0.0922.

Downward momentum is suggested by both daily-chart indicators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 35, is close to oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits beneath its signal line in negative territory.

A confirmed break below the horizontal support at $0.0776, established by the 6 June low, leaves the meme coin technically exposed to the next significant support near the previous swing low of $0.0677. A breach there would signal a deeper correction. Using the Fibonacci retracement of the preceding upswing from $0.0676 to $0.01058, further support could lie at the 127.2% and 161.8% extension levels of $0.0598 and $0.0513, respectively.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance around the horizontal $0.0776 level. Beyond that, the 50-day EMA at $0.0833 and the 50% retracement at $0.0846 form a resistance cluster that DOGE would need to regain to relieve immediate selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)