Ethereum Price Forecast: Renewed ETF outflows push ETH lower

• Short-term support at $2,200 holds as Ethereum retreats with the wider crypto market.
• Outflows of $100 million from US-listed ETH spot ETFs on Thursday point to a shift in institutional positioning.
• Bears continue to dominate Ethereum as the MACD remains deeply oversold.

Roughly 8% below its monthly peak of $2,442, Ethereum (ETH) maintains its bearish trend, edging down towards the short-term psychological demand zone at $2,200 on Friday. Dynamic indicators and major moving indicators also continue to impose structural limits on the smart contract token’s upside.

Regulatory worries drive wider crypto sell-off

Mounting concerns over crypto and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the United States (US), following the Democrats’ sweeping victory over Republicans in the midterm elections, largely explain the continuing correction.

The Democrats’ takeover of Congress has fuelled fears that tighter crypto regulation could undo the gains achieved under President Donald Trump’s administration since 2024. Having failed to secure Democratic backing, the CLARITY Act had already stalled in the Senate in September.

In a written analysis report, Crypto Finance said: “Elizabeth Warren, one of the industry’s most vocal critics, is expected to take over the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress convenes in January, although the appointment has not yet been formally confirmed,” adding, “Warren has consistently advocated for tighter oversight of crypto, potentially making the path towards regulatory clarity longer and more restrictive than the industry had hoped.”

Ethereum ETFs record withdrawals

Thursday’s $100 million in outflows from US-listed Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added to risk-off sentiment across crypto markets. Demand for digital asset investment products has weakened over recent weeks as institutions adjust their positions in response to macroeconomic concerns, including elevated inflation, geopolitical tensions and other factors. With the exception of Wednesday’s unusual $53 million in inflows, ETH ETFs have maintained a bearish trend since October 26. Continued withdrawals would leave Ethereum under bearish pressure, sustaining the sell-off over the coming days and weeks.

Technical analysis: Sellers maintain their hold on Ethereum

At $2,227, Ethereum remains below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cluster between roughly $2,312 and $2,397, leaving the near-term outlook bearish. The Bollinger Bands’ middle line at $2,334 provides another cap on price, with nearby support at the lower band of $2,183. This positioning suggests continued downward pressure within a broad consolidation range.

Weak demand is also evident in the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38. Together, these indicators suggest that any recovery could encounter difficulty clearing the concentration of resistance overhead.

The area around $2,210, where the rising trendline was broken, provides the first support level. Below that, sellers may start taking profits if the price reaches the lower Bollinger Band at $2,183. On a recovery, the first resistance lies at the 200-day EMA of $2,312, close to the middle Bollinger Band at $2,334. Further barriers at the 100-day EMA of $2,348 and the 50-day EMA of $2,397 strengthen the bearish ceiling. To relieve selling pressure and clear a path towards higher trendline resistance around $2,434 and the upper Bollinger Band at $2,486, Ethereum would need a daily close above the latter EMA.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)