EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Pair seeks to reclaim 0.8400 after reaching oversold territory

After touching 17-month lows near 0.8370, EUR/USD has recovered some ground, though 0.8400 continues to cap the advance.
With oil prices elevated and concerns over France's public finances persisting, Euro gains are likely to remain constrained.
Recent UK economic releases support the case for a November BoE rate rise, helping the Pound retain its strength.

A decline of more than 2.7% from late September highs has left the Relative Strength Index deeply oversold across most timeframes, with the Euro (EUR) staging a modest corrective rise against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday. Following Wednesday's fresh 17-month lows near 0.8370, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8390, although advances remain capped at 0.8400 for now.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Thursday's modest improvement in market sentiment is lending the Euro support. Nevertheless, elevated oil prices, persistent worries over France’s public finances and the government’s difficulties in addressing them are likely to restrain the pair’s rebound.

By contrast, the Pound is likely to retain its strength. Wednesday's high UK inflation readings, alongside last week's positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, have cleared the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates at its November meeting.

Further indications about next month's meeting might emerge when BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to the press later in the day. In Europe, Fabio Panetta, the European Central Bank (ECB) official and Bank of Italy Governor, is due to speak before the European Commission publishes its preliminary Consumer Confidence report.

Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP Stages a Dead Cat Bounce

After four consecutive weeks of depreciation, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8393, with its wider downtrend still intact. A modest corrective rebound accompanies a recovery in the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) from deeply oversold territory, though the indicator remains below 40. Despite a marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the overall technical picture suggests sellers are likely to emerge on rallies.

Wednesday's high around 0.8400 provides the first resistance level, with the October 19 and 20 peaks near 0.8430 next in line. A break beneath Wednesday's low near 0.8373 would bring the next downside targets into view: the May 2025 trough near 0.8355, followed by the April 2025 low around 0.8320.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performs Best Against Australian Dollar Today

Today's percentage moves in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. The Euro recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.10%	-0.61%	-0.15%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.38%
EUR	0.13%		0.01%	-0.51%	-0.06%	0.33%	0.26%	-0.28%
GBP	0.10%	-0.01%		-0.53%	-0.09%	0.30%	0.22%	-0.29%
JPY	0.61%	0.51%	0.53%		0.45%	0.82%	0.72%	0.23%
CAD	0.15%	0.06%	0.09%	-0.45%		0.37%	0.30%	-0.22%
AUD	-0.20%	-0.33%	-0.30%	-0.82%	-0.37%		-0.09%	-0.59%
NZD	-0.13%	-0.26%	-0.22%	-0.72%	-0.30%	0.09%		-0.48%
CHF	0.38%	0.28%	0.29%	-0.23%	0.22%	0.59%	0.48%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and reading across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.