EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers near nine-day EMA around 176.00

• The 12-month low at 175.10 could provide immediate support for EUR/JPY.
• Momentum remains weak, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index close to 35.
• At 176.32, the nine-day EMA presents the first barrier to gains.

At around 175.90 in Thursday’s Asian session, EUR/JPY is edging down following modest gains the previous day. A descending channel on the daily chart points to a clearly bearish technical outlook for the cross.

Trading below both its nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), EUR/JPY retains a bearish short-term bias. With the shorter-term EMA below its longer-term counterpart, the alignment adds weight to the downside outlook. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 35 signals subdued momentum, nearing oversold territory without yet reaching it.

A decline in EUR/JPY could bring the 12-month low of 175.10, recorded on 23 October, into view, ahead of the descending channel’s lower boundary at around 174.60. A break beneath this confluence of support would clear the way towards the region of the 15-month low at 169.72.

Any recovery would first face the nine-day EMA at 176.32, with the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.20 the next hurdle. Beyond that, the 50-day EMA at 178.99 provides further resistance. Clearing this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, paving the way for EUR/JPY to approach the area around its all-time high of 187.95, set on 17 April.

Yen advances in G10 rankings with support from intervention

Rabobank strategists point to the Yen’s stronger showing among G10 currencies, observing that "the JPY is the second best performing G10 currency in the half year to date after the NOK" and "the fourth best performing G10 currency in the year to date." However, they warn that this strength has not come entirely through organic gains, emphasising that "significant amounts of FX intervention in favour of the JPY have been a notable factor in supporting it this year."

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)