Gold Price Forecast: Risk appetite weighs on USD as XAU/USD maintains gains near $4,100

• Gold recovers towards $4,100 on Monday as Friday’s losses are reversed
• USD weakens as risk appetite improves on Monday, while Iran peace talks continue and Oil holds near two-month lows
• XAU/USD remains above the upper boundary of the descending channel drawn from late August highs

Trading just below $4.100 on Monday, Gold (XAU/USD) is posting modest gains that reverse Friday’s decline and build on last week’s recovery. Buyers are looking towards last week’s highs in the $4,150 region. A softer US Dollar is supporting precious metals as work towards a Middle East peace agreement continues and Oil prices hold steady near two-month lows.

Reports that negotiations towards a peace agreement in Iran are continuing have lifted risk sentiment, leaving the US Dollar weaker across the board on Monday. Market sentiment also benefited from US President Trump’s remarks on Sunday that renewed hostilities against the Islamic Republic would be unlikely if talks make progress.

October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls growth exceeded forecasts by a substantial margin, however, providing support for the USD and opening the way for further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening in December. After Friday’s NFP release, leading Fed policymakers also backed that outlook. As a result, declines in the US Dollar are likely to remain limited.

Technical Analysis: Gold buyers push above the descending channel

After rebounding above the descending channel’s upper boundary earlier in the session, XAU/USD is trading at $4,094. Spot gold remains well below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader outlook subdued. Momentum indicators nevertheless suggest increasing upward impetus: the daily Relative Strength Index (14) has steadied around 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has moved into positive territory.

The $4,150 region mentioned above, which halted Friday’s advances, is likely to provide resistance for buyers. A break above it would bring the early October highs around $4,230 into view, followed by the mid-September highs near $4,400.

Initial support lies in the area where the breached trendline at $4,050 converges with Friday’s low of $4,030 and the psychological $4,000 mark. A bearish move below this area would invalidate the positive outlook, shifting attention to the 3 November low near $3,900 and the channel’s lower boundary, currently at $3,825.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)