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Japan: December BoJ hike supported by trade and inflation data – DBS
Japan’s real GDP is forecast to expand by 0.8% in Q3, according to DBS Group Research, with AI-driven exports and firmer wage-led consumption supporting growth. While October’s trade figures are expected to reveal robust export growth alongside a widening deficit, higher energy costs and a weak Japanese Yen are keeping inflation above 2%. Against this backdrop, expectations of a 25bp rate rise by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in December should strengthen.
Growth and inflation support BOJ rate tightening
"Real GDP is expected to expand by 0.8% qoq saar in 3Q, broadly in line with trend."
"October trade data are likely to show export growth remaining solid at 17% yoy, but the trade deficit widening to JPY1.2tn."
"Overall, these data should reinforce the case for a 25bp BOJ rate hike at the December policy meeting, with growth around trend, inflation above target, and continued pressure on external balance/exchange rate."
(An editor reviewed this article, which was produced with assistance from an Artificial Intelligence tool. Learn more.)
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