NEAR Protocol Price Forecast: Mounting bearish signals put NEAR at risk of further losses

• At around $3.61 on Tuesday, NEAR Protocol is little changed following a test of a key support level.
• Following withdrawals of more than $4 million last week, institutional flows were net zero on Monday, marking a pause in outflows.
• Weak retail demand is indicated by a persistently negative Coinbase premium alongside net outflows from NEAR futures.

The $3.40 support level prompted a rebound on Monday, leaving NEAR Protocol (NEAR) holding above $3.50 on Tuesday. The AI token nevertheless faces pressure from subdued institutional interest and steadily weakening retail demand, alongside a negative Coinbase premium and futures outflows. With several resistance levels continuing to cap the price, NEAR’s technical outlook remains bearish.

NEAR ETFs Record Outflows as Futures Come Under Selling Pressure

Zero net flows on Monday followed withdrawals of $4.38 million and $3.43 million over the preceding two weeks, according to SoSoValue data. NEAR ETFs therefore remain under pressure after a couple of weeks of net redemptions. Sustained outflows generally indicate that institutional investors are withdrawing funds, signalling diminished confidence in the asset.

A comparable weakening in demand can be seen among retail investors. At 230 million NEAR on Tuesday, NEAR Open Interest (OI) has fallen from 318 million NEAR on 22 October, CoinGlass data shows. The decline indicates a lower notional value of active contracts and points to risk aversion, consistent with increasing net outflows from the futures market.

While outflows from NEAR futures represented 17% of daily volume, the spot market absorbed the supply, recording inflows equivalent to nearly 10% of daily volume. 

US demand for the NEAR token is also subdued. A negative Coinbase premium of -0.097% means the token trades at a discount on the exchange, suggesting limited interest among US investors. Those watching for a recovery may view a positive spike in the Coinbase premium as a possible signal of a bullish trend reversal. Such a move was previously seen on 4 September, followed by several smaller spikes in late September.

Technical outlook: NEAR faces a test of $3.40 support

At $3.6130 at the time of writing on Tuesday, NEAR Protocol retains a bearish short-term bias. The four-hour chart reinforces the downtrend, with the token trading beneath both the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3.8332 and the 200-period EMA at $4.2614.

A falling wedge defines NEAR’s technical structure, bounded by a descending trendline at $3.7981 and a support trendline near $3.4000. Horizontal support around $3.4030 provides an immediate floor, reinforcing the lower trendline. Should a break beneath this zone be confirmed, the token would be vulnerable to a deeper correction, with subsequent support at $2.9780 and $2.7280.

The momentum picture is mixed. Modest downward momentum is suggested by both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remaining below and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting close to 43.

On the upside, the first resistance lies around $3.7981, where the price would break the descending trendline, with the 50-EMA at $3.8332 just above it. The next hurdle is the horizontal level at $3.9160, followed by the 200-EMA near $4.2614.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)