Preliminary count gives New Zealand’s governing coalition a narrow majority

With about 14% of votes still uncounted, preliminary election results give New Zealand’s ruling coalition a narrow majority, leaving the outcome undecided. Which political group governs the country over the next three years will depend on the final tally.

Voters shifted more support than previously towards smaller parties on the ideological flanks, dealing a substantial setback to New Zealand’s two main political parties in the closest election in years. Those parties are the centre-right National Party under Christopher Luxon and the centre-left Labour Party led by Chris Hipkins.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

With 67 seats in an enlarged 131-seat parliament, the governing right-leaning bloc currently has a slender advantage. The outstanding votes could reverse that lead, however, with final results scheduled for 27 November.

NZD/USD edges higher  

At the time of writing, the NZD/USD pair trades at 0.5560, up 0.37% on the day.

New Zealand Dollar: Key Questions Answered

Known as the Kiwi, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is a familiar currency among investors. New Zealand’s economic health and central bank policy largely determine its value, although several distinctive influences also affect its movements. As China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner, developments in the Chinese economy tend to influence the Kiwi. Negative Chinese economic news is likely to reduce demand for New Zealand’s exports, weighing on its economy and, in turn, its currency. Dairy prices are another important influence on NZD, given the dairy industry’s position as New Zealand’s leading export sector. Higher dairy prices lift export earnings, supporting both the economy and the NZD.

Keeping inflation close to the 2% midpoint of a 1% to 3% range over the medium term is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) objective. The bank sets interest rates at a level appropriate to that aim. If inflation becomes too high, the RBNZ will raise rates to slow economic activity. Higher rates also lift bond yields, making investment in the country more attractive and thereby supporting NZD. Rate cuts, by contrast, generally weigh on the currency. NZD/USD can also be strongly influenced by the interest rate differential: the gap between New Zealand’s actual or expected rates and those set by the US Federal Reserve.

By providing a key gauge of New Zealand’s economic conditions, macroeconomic releases can influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Robust growth, low unemployment and strong confidence underpin a healthy economy and support NZD. Rapid economic growth draws overseas investment and, when accompanied by elevated inflation, may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates. Weak economic figures, on the other hand, are likely to lead to NZD depreciation.

When investors see limited risks across markets and feel confident about growth, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) generally appreciates. These risk-on conditions tend to improve the outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. During market disruption or economic uncertainty, however, investors typically move out of higher-risk assets into more stable safe havens, leaving NZD prone to weakness.