Ripple Price Forecast: XRP Holds On to $1.25 Support as Binance Reserves Reach Five-Year Low

• Around $1.25, XRP buyers are positioning for a near-term recovery attempt while the wider cryptocurrency market consolidates.
• Following the reopening of withdrawals, Binance's XRP reserves have declined steeply to their lowest level since 2021.
• With the MACD below zero and the RSI still in bearish territory, XRP's technical picture continues to favour sellers.

Psychological support at $1.20 and structural resistance near $1.32 define Ripple's (XRP) sideways trading range on Tuesday. Above $1.25, the remittance token appears to be gaining momentum for a recovery as traders weigh greater risk exposure in the wake of last week's historic $6.3 billion Binance hack.

Although Binance's announcement that it will cover the losses and protect users has left the situation on the exchange largely contained, concerns over the short- and medium-term outlook persist across the wider cryptocurrency market.

Over the past month, XRP has lost nearly 19%, leaving it 24% below its September peak of around $1.67. A sustained uptrend therefore depends on the support zone towards $1.20 holding; failure to do so could take the sell-off towards the year-to-date trough near $0.98.

In an emailed analysis report, Crypto Finance said, “The Binance hack continues to dominate the discussion. All things considered, the fact that the situation remains contained is remarkable given the reported scale of the incident,” and added, “It is arguably the type of event that very few parties could have absorbed.”

Binance XRP reserves fall to multi-year lows

After Binance reopened withdrawals, XRP balances on the exchange dropped markedly to levels last seen in 2021. The sizeable outflows followed a suspension of withdrawals intended to contain the security breach.

By Monday, data put Binance's reserves at roughly 2.38 billion XRP, down from 2.47 billion XRP last Friday. Over three days, that represents a reduction of approximately 92.36 million XRP, equivalent to roughly 3.74% of the total supply.

Nevertheless, substantial XRP reserves are still held on the exchange, indicating that reopening withdrawals did not prompt large-scale outflows.

Writing in CryptoQuants’ Insights segment, Arab Chain said, “The most notable aspect of this data is that XRP reserves have reached levels not seen on the exchange since 2021, reflecting a continued reduction in the amount of XRP held on Binance,”

A continuation of this trend could leave less XRP available to sell on Binance. Provided demand holds steady, that could alleviate selling pressure.

Crypto Finance went on to say, “We believe the current weakness in crypto is more reflective of the broader macro environment than of the hack itself, although the latter is clearly adding pressure,”

Technical analysis: XRP buyers hold key support zone

At $1.25, XRP remains beneath all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) as well as the active SuperTrend line, leaving the short-term outlook bearish. The downward-sloping resistance trendline near $1.29 also sits above the price, indicating that rallies continue to meet rejection below the previous structural supply zone. Meanwhile, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of around 38 points to subdued momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

Slightly below zero, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates that downward pressure remains, though it has yet to produce strong follow-through.

The descending trendline around $1.29 provides the first resistance, ahead of the 100-day EMA at $1.32 and the 50-day EMA at $1.34. Together, these levels create a concentrated overhead barrier. Should a corrective rebound continue, stronger obstacles are likely at the 200-period EMA of $1.36 and the SuperTrend line near $1.39. The bearish bias is expected to endure for as long as XRP remains below this layered resistance zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)