Ripple Price Forecast: XRP remains rangebound under pressure from negative Coinbase Premium Index

• At around $1.25, XRP remains rangebound as investor appetite subsides.
• A fall to approximately -0.16% in XRP's Coinbase Premium Index points to softer demand.
• Structural resistance restricts XRP's upside, leaving limited scope for a technical recovery.

Around $1.25 is where Ripple (XRP) is trading on Monday, with buyers and sellers vying to establish the next direction once consolidation ends. Following the $6.3 billion Binance security breach last week, the remittance token fell sharply alongside the wider cryptocurrency market. The $1.20 region offers psychological support and is a likely area for buyers to return. Nevertheless, structural obstacles across short- and medium-term timeframes warrant measured expectations among investors.

XRP demand weakens as Coinbase Premium Index slips below zero

On-chain figures from CryptoQuant put the XRP Coinbase Premium Index in negative territory at roughly 0.16%. The reading means that XRP's average price on Coinbase is now lower than on Binance, pointing to softer demand for the token.

Prolonged negative readings have sometimes coincided with reduced buying appetite on Coinbase in the past. A move back above zero, by contrast, may point to a relative recovery in demand.

The fall in the index alone, however, is not conclusive evidence that downward pressure will persist. Assessing its fluctuations also requires monitoring trading volumes, exchange flows and XRP's price movements.

The Fear & Greed Index stood at 37 on Monday, remaining in Fear territory despite a modest rise from 34 the previous day. That subdued reading reflects a marked deterioration in market sentiment alongside waning XRP demand. It also contrasts with the neutral reading of 50 last week and the previous month's reading of 67, when sentiment was in Greed territory.

Technical outlook: XRP remains exposed to further declines

Trading close to $1.25 on the daily chart, XRP/USDT continues to retreat below all its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), maintaining a bearish near-term outlook. The 100-day EMA at $1.33, 50-day EMA at $1.34 and 200-day EMA at $1.37 all sit above the price. Together with the SuperTrend line near $1.40, they form a substantial zone of overhead supply.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 36 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator below zero, momentum remains weak. These readings suggest sellers retain control, although conditions are not yet outright oversold.

For a meaningful recovery to take shape, XRP must first regain the broken descending trendline near $1.30, its initial resistance. Further up, resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $1.33 and then the 50-day EMA at $1.34. The 200-day EMA at $1.37 and SuperTrend level at $1.40 add to the wider ceiling on the pair's gains.

The current daily-chart dataset shows no clear support levels nearby. A sustained move back above trendline resistance at $1.30 would therefore provide the first indication of easing selling pressure. Until that happens, the cluster of moving averages and SuperTrend resistance above the price is likely to limit rallies.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)