Solana Price Forecast: SOL Makes Little Headway Near $100 as Institutional Demand Remains Weak

• A 2% fall last week extended Solana’s losing streak to three weeks, with the token holding above $100 on Monday.
• Friday’s outflows from SOL-focused ETFs exceeded $8 million, taking the weekly total above $17 million.
• Retail demand for Solana weakens as futures Open Interest falls from last week’s $6.34 billion to $6.18 billion.

Following a 2% fall last week and three consecutive weekly losses, Solana (SOL) remains above $100 on Monday, although its near-term bias is still bearish. Institutional selling continues to weigh on SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which posted a third weekly outflow of more than $17 million. Meanwhile, declining Open Interest points to softer retail demand. SOL’s bearish technical outlook leaves long-term support around $98, at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), under pressure.

Solana ETFs Remain Under Selling Pressure

Last week’s $17.30 million withdrawal marked the third consecutive week of outflows from Solana-focused ETFs, lifting the monthly total to $72.24 million. A further week of withdrawals could take monthly outflows above $1 million, making this the largest monthly outflow since June’s $786,580. Outflows from ETFs generally indicate that institutional investors are selling shares, signalling weaker confidence in the underlying asset.

Demand for Solana futures is also weakening among retail investors. According to CoinGlass, SOL futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $6.18 billion on Monday, down from $6.34 billion last week. The fall points to a lower notional value of outstanding contracts against a backdrop of declining spot prices and a possible wipeout of positions.

Overall, demand for the Layer-1 token remains subdued despite the Alpenglow upgrade last week. The upgrade replaced the old TowerBFT system with Votor, a new engine that reduced transaction finality from roughly 12 seconds to a targeted 150 milliseconds.

Technical Outlook: SOL Holds Above $100 as Downside Pressure Persists

At the time of writing on Monday, Solana is quoted at $101.45, above the 200-day EMA at $98.27 but still constrained beneath the 50-day EMA at $105.99. Trading between these major averages points to a correction within a wider uptrend. An ascending support trendline around $86.67 provides further support for the underlying structure.

A daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36 indicates that momentum remains weak. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits slightly beneath its signal line in negative territory, suggesting that downward pressure persists.

Initial meaningful support lies at the 200-day EMA of $98.27. Should a break below this level be confirmed, losses could deepen towards the ascending trendline near $86.67, where stronger buying interest would be expected if the correction extends.

For any recovery, the first resistance comes at the 50-day EMA near $105.99. Beyond that lies the more distant horizontal barrier of $122.94, the high reached on 25 September.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)