USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar approaches 0.8250 as momentum picks up modestly

Having recovered from one-month lows below 0.8200, USD/CHF reaches session highs close to 0.8250.
With oil reaching new five-month highs, modest risk aversion lends support to the US Dollar.
A retreat in French yields from their highs reduces the CHF’s safe-haven appeal.

Surging oil prices are prompting a risk-averse mood on Friday, helping the US Dollar (USD) pare its losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) despite the drag from lower US Treasury yields. After rebounding from support around 0.8200, USD/CHF is challenging Thursday’s highs at 0.8247 at the time of writing. Momentum indicators suggest that bearish pressure is easing.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Above $110.00 on Friday, Brent Oil prices have reached new five-month highs as renewed supply concerns follow Iran’s tightening control of the Strait of Hormuz and further attacks on Saudi Arabian oilfields. At these levels, crude prices put additional pressure on oil-importing economies, including Switzerland’s.

Meanwhile, having reached a multi-decade high of 5.14% on Thursday, the French 10-year OAT bond yield has fallen 10 basis points. The retreat has diminished the speculative appeal of the CHF, which has served as a haven during France’s debt crisis.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar attracts buying around 0.8200 support

A recovery from the 0.8200 area has taken USD/CHF above former support at 0.8230, leaving the pair trading at 0.8242 with a mildly bullish near-term bias. Bearish momentum is weakening: the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has moved back towards the neutral 50 region, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive.

Consolidation above 0.8230 would put the weekly highs around 0.8275 in focus. A decisive move through that level would invalidate the bearish trend, opening the way towards the lows of 13 and 14 October near 0.8315.

Conversely, a move back below 0.8230 would encourage bears to challenge support near 0.8185, the 22 September low. Below that, the next target lies around 0.8150, the area of the mid-August and early September highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Posts Its Strongest Gain Against Swiss Franc Today

Today’s percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. Its strongest performance was against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.19%	0.21%	0.08%	-0.05%	0.03%	-0.03%	0.45%
EUR	-0.19%		0.02%	-0.11%	-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.22%	0.25%
GBP	-0.21%	-0.02%		-0.15%	-0.25%	-0.20%	-0.23%	0.24%
JPY	-0.08%	0.11%	0.15%		-0.13%	-0.06%	-0.11%	0.38%
CAD	0.05%	0.23%	0.25%	0.13%		0.09%	0.00%	0.51%
AUD	-0.03%	0.19%	0.20%	0.06%	-0.09%		-0.05%	0.42%
NZD	0.03%	0.22%	0.23%	0.11%	-0.00%	0.05%		0.48%
CHF	-0.45%	-0.25%	-0.24%	-0.38%	-0.51%	-0.42%	-0.48%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.