USD/JPY Price Forecasts: US Dollar remains tentative beneath the 157.20 zone

The former support zone between 157.20 and 157.50 is proving difficult for USD/JPY to reclaim.
With Fed and BoJ interest rate decisions due later this week, investors are remaining on the sidelines.
Ahead of the central bank decisions, support above 156.00 is likely to keep sellers in check.

Support at 156.00 has underpinned USD/JPY, although the pair has yet to establish a firm foothold above 157.00. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as Monday’s European session opens, but remains below the lower boundary of its previous three-week trading range. Markets are biding their time ahead of key central bank decisions in the second half of the week.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Amid mounting inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.25%. It is also expected to signal another increase in December, maintaining its quarterly monetary tightening cycle.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), which announces its decision before the BoJ, is likewise expected to leave rates unchanged. However, Chair Kevin Warsh's aversion to forward guidance is likely to keep the central bank's rate outlook unclear. If so, Thursday's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is likely to offer greater clarity on December's decision.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY remains rangebound beneath 157.20 - 157.50

At 157.13, USD/JPY is sustaining a tentative recovery, although momentum indicators on the 4-hour charts point to a neutral market. Having recovered to levels above the 40s, the Relative Strength Index (14) contrasts with a hovering Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line, suggesting that near-term bullish momentum remains weak.

The former support zone around 157.20 to 157.50 continues to limit advances, having repeatedly kept sellers in check earlier in October. Beyond this area, the next upside targets would be the 21 October high at 158.40, followed by the upper end of the range around 159.00.

A decisive break below 156.10 - 156.40, the area of the 29 September and 23 October lows, would clear a path towards the 17 September low at 155.35.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Performs Best Against New Zealand Dollar Today

Today's percentage moves in the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the major currencies listed are set out below. The New Zealand Dollar was the currency against which the Japanese Yen performed best.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.07%	0.08%	0.17%	0.07%	0.11%	0.17%	-0.03%
EUR	0.07%		0.18%	0.23%	0.13%	0.19%	0.25%	0.05%
GBP	-0.08%	-0.18%		0.04%	-0.04%	0.00%	0.08%	-0.14%
JPY	-0.17%	-0.23%	-0.04%		-0.08%	-0.06%	0.00%	-0.20%
CAD	-0.07%	-0.13%	0.04%	0.08%		0.01%	0.11%	-0.10%
AUD	-0.11%	-0.19%	-0.01%	0.06%	-0.01%		0.07%	-0.13%
NZD	-0.17%	-0.25%	-0.08%	-0.01%	-0.11%	-0.07%		-0.20%
CHF	0.03%	-0.05%	0.14%	0.20%	0.10%	0.13%	0.20%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Japanese Yen on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for JPY (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.