WTI Price Forecast: Prices rise above $100 as fears mount over renewed escalation in Middle East conflicts

• Oil surges towards $100 amid mounting risks to energy supplies.
• Fresh strikes on Iran remain a possibility as the US and Israel indicate their readiness to act.
• Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery comes under attack from Iran-backed Houthis.

A 1.42% rise takes West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX to around $101.00 in Wednesday’s European trading. Supporting oil prices are fears of renewed escalation in Middle East conflicts, after the United States (US) and Israel warned that they were ready to strike Iran again following elections in their respective countries.

Brent extends gains as renewed Iran concerns support prices

Brent crude’s recent advance is continuing, according to strategists at Deutsche Bank, who describe it as “+1.48% higher again overnight as the WSJ reported the Trump administration warning Gulf states to be prepared for a new operation against Iran after the midterms.” Danske Bank’s research team identifies a further source of geopolitical support, observing that, in his post-election speech, “Netanyahu raised the prospects of renewed joint action with President Trump against Iran.”

Tighter US energy supplies have provided additional support for oil prices, Deutsche Bank notes. In a research note, the bank wrote: “The API data showed a decline in US crude inventories of around 2 million barrels last week, pointing to continued tighter supply,”

Energy supply risks have also increased as tensions rise between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.

A military spokesperson for Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday that the group had fired a ballistic missile towards the Ras Tanura oil refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia, the kingdom’s largest refinery, according to Reuters.

WTI Holds a Bullish Technical Bias

Trading around $101 on the daily chart, WTI US Oil retains a bullish near-term outlook, with the price firmly above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $96.52. Remaining above this dynamic support keeps the short-term trend structure positive. Meanwhile, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 63 suggests solid upward momentum that has yet to reach overbought territory.

The 20-day EMA around $96.52 provides the first downside support. A daily close beneath it would suggest that bullish control is weakening and leave the price vulnerable to a deeper correction. On the upside, the 23 October high of $103.28 presents the first obstacle, followed by the key resistance level at the 18 May high of $104.74.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)