WTI Price Forecast: Stays under pressure below $100.00 as Middle East concerns curb losses

• Easing supply concerns on hopes of Middle East diplomacy leave WTI lower for a second consecutive day.
• Oil losses remain contained as attacks on Saudi Arabia sustain the geopolitical risk premium.
• A bullish technical backdrop also calls for caution over positioning for a substantial fall.

Below the psychological $100.00 threshold in Tuesday’s Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, faces selling pressure for a second consecutive day. Nevertheless, prices remain close to the five-month high reached last Friday, with traders watching for further developments in the Middle East crisis.

Hopes of a possible resolution to the US-Israeli war on Iran have reduced some concerns about supply disruption, weighing on crude prices. Yet stalled US-Iran talks and fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthis continue to underpin the geopolitical risk premium. Reports also suggest that Lebanese armed group Hezbollah is preparing for a possible return to hostilities with Israel. Together, these developments weaken prospects for near-term regional stability and should help contain oil’s downside.

On the 4-hour chart, crude prices remain above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and all key Fibonacci retracement support levels between $86.58 and $99.42, preserving a bullish near-term outlook. Momentum indicators, however, point to some cooling. Having previously shown overbought conditions, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated towards neutral at 50.69, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved below zero. This suggests consolidation within an otherwise supported uptrend, rather than a decisive reversal.

The first support level to watch is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $99.42. Below that, the 38.2% retracement at $96.97 and the 50% level at $94.98 form a cluster around the 100-period SMA at $94.74, strengthening a wider demand zone. A more pronounced pullback would bring the 61.8% retracement at $93.00 into focus, ahead of lower Fibonacci levels at $90.18 and $86.58. For buyers, the next major resistance is the recent cycle-high anchor near $103.39. A break above it would be needed to prolong the rally that began at the start of this month.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI price chart: 4-hour timeframe