WTI Price Forecast: Hits fresh low since late August below $83.00 amid Iran peace hopes

• WTI Falls for a Second Consecutive Day as Hopes for Iran Diplomacy Weigh
• Conflicting signals on US-Iran peace talks may help put a floor under further oil price declines.
• WTI Breaks Below the 200-Day SMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement, Supporting Further Declines

Below $84.00, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, reached its lowest level since late August in the first half of Tuesday’s European session as heavy selling continued for a second consecutive day. Prospects of a US-Iran peace agreement are a key source of pressure on oil, supporting the case for further losses following the recent sharp retreat from just above $104.00. That level, reached last month, was the highest since May 18.

Optimism about a possible diplomatic settlement to the US-Iran war increased after US President Donald Trump described positive momentum towards ending the war on Iran. He said renewed strikes were quite unlikely and declared the conflict effectively over. These remarks are seen as weighing on crude oil prices. Geopolitical risks nevertheless persist: Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, rejected reports of active negotiations as fake news and repeated that Washington must accept Tehran’s seven conditions for ending the conflict. Meanwhile, weakness in the US Dollar (USD) could offer the commodity some support, with traders awaiting US consumer inflation figures for fresh direction.

For bearish traders, the intraday breach of the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $85.48 could provide a fresh trigger. Momentum readings also favour further declines. The Relative Strength Index is hovering around 33, close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is moving further into negative territory, indicating that sellers retain control. The next significant support lies near $81.11, at the 61.8% retracement. Below that, further support comes at the 78.6% level around $74.89 and the previous swing-low area near $66.96, where a deeper retreat could find a base and help stabilise the broader uptrend.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near $85.48, the 50% retracement, with the 200-day SMA at $86.31 immediately beyond it. A stronger area of supply begins around the 38.2% retracement at $89.85, extending towards the 23.6% level at $95.26 and the recent cycle peak around $104.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI daily chart shows a bearish bias