Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC below $500 puts bulls under pressure, 100-day EMA in focus

• Zcash trades below $500 on Wednesday after two consecutive days of losses so far this week.
• Retail demand for ZEC remains mixed as the broader crypto market awaits the US CPI data for July on Wednesday.
• The technical outlook for Zcash remains bullish in the long term, as the price holds above the key 100-day EMA at $468.

Zcash (ZEC) price trades below $500 at press time on Wednesday, holding steady after two consecutive days of losses. Retail demand for the privacy coin is mixed as the broader market awaits the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July later in the day. The technical outlook for ZEC is positive in the long term, as the price remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $468.

US CPI data, Ironwood migration weigh on Zcash retail strength

Zcash wallets are guiding users to migrate their holdings from the vulnerable Orchard pool to the Ironwood pool. However, the migration weighs on retail demand amid rising concerns about privacy and security in the crypto market, due to multiple hacks and vulnerabilities exposed by AI-driven attackers. As per Zkp.baby data, the Orchard pool has dropped 10% in 24 hours to 1.18 million ZEC, while the Ironwood pool is up 5% to 2.62 million ZEC.

In addition, the crypto market is watching the US CPI data, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday around 12:30 GMT. This inflation data could be a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.

According to CoinGlass, the ZEC futures Open Interest is down almost 2% over the last 24 hours to $868.32 million, indicating a reduction in the notional value of active positions. Long liquidation of $3.07 million outpaced short liquidation of $338,630 in the same period, indicating reduced bullish positional buildup. The long-to-short ratio of 0.9474 reaffirms contraction in active long positions. 

Still, the funding rate of 0.0067% reflects persistent retail demand for new long positions at a premium, indicating a buy-the-dip approach from traders. 

Technical outlook: Will ZEC hold to its long-term bullish bias?

Zcash trades around $480 at press time on Wednesday, holding above its 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $468 and $416, respectively. This setup reaffirms the long-term constructive tone, while the price remains below the 50-day EMA at $489, suggesting near-term downside pressure.

From a technical perspective, the privacy coin contracts within a symmetrical triangle pattern with two converging trendlines. In addition, ZEC consolidates between the 78.6% and 50% retracement levels of the upswing from $368 to $589, at $532 and $465, respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 stays near neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds slightly negative below the signal line, suggesting that upside momentum is waning in the near term.

The immediate support for ZEC aligns with the 100-day EMA at $468 and the 50% retracement level at $465. A decisive close below this level could threaten the rising support trendline near $444, where a breakout could boost downside pressure.

Looking up, the 50-day EMA at $489 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $532 serve as immediate resistances. A sustained break above this cluster would expose the overhead trendline near $540.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)