TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 10 October 2026

Morning Snapshot

• Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September against expectations for a 7,000 gain, extending August’s 41,700 decline and erasing the country’s net job gains for 2026.
• President Donald Trump said Vladimir Putin agreed to supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States and global markets immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons thereafter.
• WTI crude traded around $90.65 a barrel, little changed on the day, as traders weighed persistent Strait of Hormuz supply risks against easing fears of an immediate U.S.-Iran military escalation.
• China’s central bank rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued and said it will begin reporting foreign-exchange operation data to the IMF from 2027, while the country’s reserves fell to $3.40 trillion at the end of September from $3.44 trillion a month earlier.
• Ledger suspended sales and shipments by Southeast Asian reseller CryptoBilis while it investigates a suspected supply-chain breach linked to reported crypto losses of more than $86 million.
• French bond-market strains remained in focus as the OAT-Bund spread stayed near last week’s post-global-financial-crisis peak and ECB officials said conditions for direct intervention are not currently met.
• USD/CAD climbed to around 1.4276, near levels last seen in April 2025, after Canada’s weak labour-market report weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar.
• USD/CNY fell 30 pips to 6.70 while USD/CNH was little changed after the PBoC pushed back against accusations of currency undervaluation.

Market Developments

Foreign Exchange

USD/CAD rose to around 1.4276, near levels last seen in April 2025, as the Canadian dollar weakened sharply after Canada’s September employment report. USD/CNY fell 30 pips to 6.70, while USD/CNH was little changed at 6.70.

Energy

WTI crude traded around $90.65 per barrel, up 0.10% on the day, as the market balanced ongoing Middle East supply risks against news that Russia would increase diesel supplies to the United States and global markets.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Canada Sheds 68,300 Jobs in September as Labour-Market Weakness Deepens

Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, far weaker than expectations for a 7,000 increase. The decline followed a revised 41,700 drop in August, leaving the country having given back all of its net job gains for 2026.

The weak report hit the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD climbing to around 1.4276, near levels last seen in April 2025. The move came as domestic labour-market weakness added to pressure from a wide U.S.-Canada yield gap and a firm U.S. dollar backdrop.

PBoC Rejects Yuan Undervaluation Claims and Pledges IMF FX Reporting

The People’s Bank of China rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued, arguing that China’s export strength reflects industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation. The central bank said there is no linear relationship between the exchange rate and the current-account balance and said past periods of yuan depreciation did not accelerate gains in China’s export market share.

The statement came as European trade officials held talks with Chinese counterparts and as Brussels increasingly framed bilateral trade imbalances as a currency issue. The PBoC also said China will begin reporting foreign-exchange operation data to the IMF from 2027, a step toward greater transparency.

China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $3.40 trillion at the end of September from $3.44 trillion at the end of August, below a Bloomberg consensus estimate of $3.43 trillion. The decline was partly attributed to valuation effects from weaker gold prices during the month. In currency markets, USD/CNY fell 30 pips to 6.70, while USD/CNH was little changed at 6.70.

French Spread Pressures Persist as ECB Signals No Immediate Intervention

French debt-market stress remained in focus, with the OAT-Bund spread edging close to last week’s post-global-financial-crisis peak. Rabobank said 38% of French high-grade corporate debt now yields less than government bonds, reflecting lower perceived credit risk than sovereign paper.

ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the central bank has instruments to counter unwarranted market dynamics, while Governing Council member Moulin and French Finance Minister Lescure said the conditions for direct intervention are not currently met. The comments pointed to guidance rather than immediate policy action.

France has yet to reassure markets on its budget plans amid protests and political uncertainty ahead of next year’s presidential election. The discussion around potential use of tools such as the Transmission Protection Instrument has also highlighted that a credible budget path would likely be required before France could qualify for stronger ECB support.

Energy & Geopolitics

Trump Says Putin Agreed to Increase Diesel Supplies to U.S. and Global Markets

President Donald Trump said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed that Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the United States and the global market immediately. Trump said the next shipments would total 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons immediately after that.

The announcement fed directly into oil-market trading, with one report saying crude prices fell on the news of additional Russian diesel supply. The development added a new supply-side factor to an energy market already focused on geopolitical risk and fuel availability.

WTI Holds Near $90.65 as Strait of Hormuz Risks Offset Easing U.S.-Iran Escalation Fears

West Texas Intermediate traded around $90.65 per barrel, up 0.10% on the day, as traders weighed easing fears of an immediate U.S.-Iran military escalation against persistent supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

The market remained sensitive to the possibility of disruption in one of the world’s most important oil transit routes even as immediate concerns about direct military escalation eased. At the same time, news of additional Russian diesel supplies to the United States and global markets added another factor to the broader energy-supply picture.

Technology, Digital Assets & Cybersecurity

Ledger Investigates Suspected Supply-Chain Breach Linked to More Than $86 Million in Crypto Losses

Ledger is investigating reports of more than $86 million in crypto losses involving customers who bought hardware wallets through CryptoBilis, an authorised reseller operating across Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Ledger’s support account said CryptoBilis had been asked to suspend sales and shipments during the investigation.

Onchain investigator Specter initially estimated losses at more than $86 million across hundreds of wallets spanning Bitcoin, Ethereum and TRON. Blockchain analytics firm Bitquery separately estimated that about $92.9 million had been stolen from 311 wallets across five blockchain networks.

Ledger has not confirmed the higher loss estimates. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, urged the broader crypto industry to help Ledger secure the stolen funds.