【TMGM Financial Recap】SpaceX Buys a Segment of Spectrum, Over $45 Billion Lost by the Big Three U.S. Telecom Operators

The asset changed hands once two months ago: on August 11, 2026, T-Mobile sold it to Grain for $2.9 billion in cash and all 600MHz Grain's spectrum licenses, with the swap approved by the FCC on July 1. If the price of about $8 billion is accepted, the asking price would roughly double within two months; Since the previous deal included a license swap, the actual premium was lower than that. SpaceX's target is Grain's nationwide 800MHz spectrum portfolio, with the highest 14MHz spectrum paired. The FCC says these licenses cover about 100% of the U.S. population.

Price changes are related to frequency band characteristics. Starlink Mobile previously used the 2GHz mid-band, which has larger capacity but limited signal penetration, making indoor coverage a weakness; 800MHz is a low-frequency band, with longer transmission distances and stronger penetration, and most phones on sale already natively support it, so users do not need to change devices. On October 6, the previous day, the FCC had approved SpaceX to deploy 15,000 second-generation direct-to-mobile satellites for the 2GHz band.

Among the three operators, T-Mobile saw the largest decline, and it was the seller of this spectrum two months ago; It is also a SpaceX customer — currently offering direct mobile phone connectivity via Starlink, named T-Satellite. T-Mobile's parent company, Deutsche Telekom, fell 7.3% that day, and Charter and Comcast, which operate their own wireless brands via Verizon's network, also declined in tandem. On October 1, the three operators had just formed a satellite direct-to-mobile joint venture, with Paul Roth as interim CEO. SpaceX closed up 1.2% that day.

Spectrum is a necessary condition for network construction, and there are still construction cycles and capital expenditures between the two, so sellers have differing views on this. The cautious side believes the near-term impact is limited. JPMorgan points out that without cooperating with existing operators, SpaceX would need to build its own macro base stations to form a terrestrial network to achieve the experience of traditional operators. Considering the time, infrastructure, and capital required, the short-term risks to U.S. wireless operators are limited; UBS mentioned that purchased radio waves may not reach some buildings.

Another side believes the stock price has not yet reflected this change. Peter Supino of Wolfe Research wrote that telecom stocks have not priced in Starlink Mobile that will appear "someday in the future," and this news increases the probability and speed of its emergence; Bernstein stated that buying spectrum does not mean committing to building a national network, but this batch of spectrum makes the option "more credible and cost-effective."

The two operators responded more directly. A Verizon spokesperson said a company can own billions of dollars worth of spectrum, but without a network to use it, "it's just empty waves in the air." John Saw, President of Technology at T-Mobile, said that building a network takes years of effort.

SpaceX's scale is expanding. Starlink had 12 million subscribers in Q2, doubling year-on-year, with connectivity revenue of $4.29 billion, up 66% year-on-year; During the same period, average revenue per user dropped from $85 to $66. Whether the deal can go through depends on the FCC's approval schedule. The FCC also plans to vote on auctioning 25MHz satellite direct-connect spectrum, with over $100 billion expected to enter the market over the next two years.