British Pound strengthens against US Dollar as traders price out hawkish Fed bets
- The British Pound is up to near 1.3533 against the US Dollar as Fed hawkish bets recede.
- Traders price out hawkish Fed bets after soft US CPI data for July.
- Investors shift their focus to the UK employment and CPI data.
The British Pound (GBP) trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3533 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair reflects strength as the US Dollar declines, with traders pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% lower to near 99.70.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.34% | -0.39% | -0.24% | -0.35% | -0.31% | -0.65% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.34% | -0.05% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.32% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.00% | 0.08% | -0.25% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.43% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.35% | 0.06% | -0.00% | 0.11% | 0.04% | -0.29% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.31% | -0.03% | -0.08% | 0.08% | -0.04% | -0.34% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.65% | 0.32% | 0.25% | 0.43% | 0.29% | 0.34% | 0.39% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | -0.06% | -0.12% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in September have increased to almost 65%. This represents a major repricing from the 75% odds of two Fed hikes by the September meeting recorded a month earlier.
Soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July allowed traders to pare back hawkish Fed interest rate expectations.
US inflation data temper September Fed hike odds
Analysts at Commerzbank note that "July US CPI came in broadly in line with expectations," reinforcing the view that price pressures, while still elevated, are not re-accelerating. They highlight that "overall, the report suggested that underlying inflation remains above the Fed's target but showed no broad-based re-acceleration, giving policymakers more room to remain on hold." In response, Commerzbank points out that "the Fed funds futures subsequently pared expectations for a September rate hike, with markets pricing around a 40% probability of a 25bp increase compared with 52% on Monday," underscoring a modest but notable shift in near-term Fed tightening expectations.
Meanwhile, the British Pound is expected to trade highly volatile next week as the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending June and the CPI data for July are scheduled to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3535, having pushed decisively above the former downward resistance trend line, which now offers support around 1.3451. Price action above this reclaimed structural level suggests a bullish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.7 shows firm positive momentum without yet reaching overbought territory, hinting that buyers retain control.
On the downside, the broken trend-line region near 1.3451 is immediate support, and a daily close back below that level would signal waning bullish pressure. On the topside, the next notable hurdle is the origin of the previous trend line around 1.3871, where a sustained break would open the way for a broader continuation of sterling gains against the dollar.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
