US Dollar: Softer tone as midterms reshape policy – ING

ING analysts James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, Padhraic Garvey, Lynn Song and Chris Turner note that the Dollar has softened after the Democratic sweep in US midterms, though losses have been pared with Nasdaq futures stabilizing. They highlight support from a resilient US economy and at least one more Federal Reserve rate hike, but see scope for further Dollar weakness into 2027 if political frictions and a possible government shutdown intensify.

Dollar reacts to Democratic midterm win

"The dollar is softer on the outcome, though it has recovered from its lows seen in early Asia when a sharp fall in Nasdaq futures was warning of a larger re-pricing of the tech story."

"Limiting a larger dollar correction on this news is probably a still-resilient US economy and at least one more rate hike from the Federal Reserve."

"The dollar could see a little more weakness into 2027, however, if an emboldened Democratic Party takes greater issue with Republican policy, including deregulation and the AI build-out."

"And the potential for a prolonged government shutdown in mid-2027 adds to the case for a weaker dollar next summer."

"Overall, we retain a bias towards the 10-year yield heading towards 5.25%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)