Gold: Upside risks rebuild on tariff fears – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold has extended its rebound as markets reprice tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including potential US–Iran escalation. The bank argues the late-January pullback was a normalisation rather than a structural reversal, with safe-haven demand underpinned by trade fragmentation concerns and inflation spillovers. Technicals now point to renewed upside risks above key support.

Safe-haven bid and technical recovery

"Gold extended its rebound, climbing back above the 5,220 level and briefly testing 5,228, marking a near 5% recovery from last week’s low around 4,960. Price action reflects a re-pricing of fresh policy (tariff) uncertainty and geopolitical concerns. The move also reinforces our earlier view that the late-January pullback was more of a normalisation phase rather than a structural trend reversal."

"Renewed demand for hedges following fresh tariff rhetoric from President Trump revives safe-haven demand. Markets are reassessing trade fragmentation risks and the potential spillover into global growth, supply chains and inflation pass-through. Meanwhile, the risk of geopolitical escalation between US-Iran is also another driver keeping prices of gold supported."

"Technically, the recovery above the 5,050–5,150 zone (prior congestion area) shifts near-term bias back to upside risk. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Immediate resistance sits around the recent high near 5,230/50 levels, with a clean break potentially reopening a retest of the 5,350 levels."

"On the downside, 5,120 now serves as first support, followed by 5024 (21 DMA), 4850 levels."

"AI scares, tariff uncertainty and geopolitics triggered a classic risk-off, boosting gold and safe-havens while yields fell. Markets now eye chip earnings, US–Iran talks and Fed signals, with USD shorts vulnerable to a squeeze if tensions rise."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)