AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Aussie falls below 1.2300, nearing two-month lows at 1.2265

• AUD/NZD dives nearly 0.7% on Monday and hits fresh three-week lows below 1.2300.
• The New Zealand Dollar rallies on Monday as provisional results give the coalition government a narrow lead after Sunday's elections.
• Bears are looking at key support in the area between 1.2265 and 1.2270.

The Aussie Dollar (AUD) accelerated its decline against a stronger New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Monday, as provisional results from New Zealand’s general election gave the governing coalition a tight win. The AUD/NZD pair dives 0.7% in the day so far, hitting session lows just below1.2300, with bears looking at the bottom of the last two months’ trading range, in the 1.2265-1.2270 area.

The first results of New Zealand’s elections show that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party, together with his coalition partner, the Labour Party, have held 67 of the 131 seats in the parliament, which would give them a narrow majority. Final results, however, will have to wait until November 27, and the leaders of the major parties affirmed that they will wait until then to start negotiations.

On the macroeconomic front, data from China has been mixed on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed down to a 0.7% yearly growth in October, from 0.9% in September, although the Producer Price Index surged 5.7% year-on-year, its highest level in more than four years. Both the Aussie and the Kiwi appreciated after the data release.

Technical Analysis: Bears aim for key support at the 1.2265 area

AUD/NZD trades at 1.2299, extending its slide from late October highs, below the bottom of the descending channel. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts show a deeply bearish market, with the Relative Strength Index (14) nearing, but not yet at, oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing widening red bars pointing to risks of further downside before any meaningful recovery.

Below the 1.2300 level, bears are likely to be tempted to retest September 8 and October 16 lows in the 1.2265-1.2270 area. Further down. the next target would be the September 4 low at 1.2220, although this level seems a bit out of reach for the coming sessions.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the channel’s lower boundary around 1.2335, followed by the previous support area ahead of 1.2375 (November 5 and 6 lows) and the 1.2425 area, where Friday's peak meets the channel's top.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)