Above 0.7000: Australian Dollar nears monthly high as hawkish RBA counters firmer USD

• A fourth day of buying supports AUD/USD as RBA officials deliver hawkish remarks.
• Monday’s strong Q3 GDP release from China provides a further lift to the AUD.
• Inflation concerns linked to oil bolster Fed rate-hike expectations, underpinning the USD and limiting the upside.

Above 0.7000, AUD/USD remains firmly supported. During Wednesday’s Asian session, the pair maintains a positive bias for a fourth consecutive day, trading near the monthly high reached a day earlier and holding above that psychological threshold.

Ahead of the November 3 policy meeting, hawkish remarks by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials continue to support the Australian Dollar (AUD) and sustain expectations of a rate increase. On Monday, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said there were reasonable indications of rising neutral interest rates in Australia and globally. Earlier today, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cautioned that Q3 trimmed-mean inflation could exceed expectations.

China’s strong Q3 GDP reading adds support for the Aussie: the economy expanded by 4.5% year-on-year over July-September. On the other side of the pair, the US Dollar (USD) extends its modest overnight recovery from a near three-week low. Oil-related inflation concerns are reinforcing expectations of additional Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. With traders assigning over a 90% probability to a December Fed rate increase, the US currency remains supported, restricting AUD/USD’s advance.

Renewed optimism over US-Iran peace negotiations could nevertheless deter traders from taking aggressive bullish positions in the safe-haven US Dollar. According to media reports, Qatar and Pakistan proposed a "middle ground" plan to the U.S. and Iran that satisfied both parties’ demands. With attention still on developments in the Middle East crisis, caution is therefore warranted before concluding that the USD’s recent corrective retreat from its highest level since April 2025 is over.

AUD/USD: daily price chart

Technical Outlook

With a breakout above its short-term trading range confirmed, AUD/USD is targeting a move through 0.7024, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance. A further advance could meet resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near 0.7048, before reaching the mid-range 50.0% retracement at 0.7064. The latter level maintains a bearish near-term bias, suggesting spot prices may have difficulty regaining the pivot zone within the wider corrective structure.

Below current levels, the first support lies at 0.6974, the 23.6% retracement. Further down, buyers would be expected to protect the broader range around the structural floor near 0.6893.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)