$75K test for BTC: Bitcoin and Gold Outlook as XAU falls and US Nonfarm Payrolls rise to 165K in October

• $76,000 is Bitcoin’s trading level on Friday. The cryptocurrency previously tested psychological support around $75,000.
• Below $4,050, Gold’s pullback unwinds part of its weekly advance from highs near $4,147.
• 165K US Nonfarm Payrolls in October comfortably exceeded the market forecast of 65K.

$76,000 is Bitcoin’s approximate trading level on Friday. The Crypto King has lost 0.98% on the day and nearly 4% since Monday. Both Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD) are retreating as the bearish market outlook strengthens. Gold has slipped below $4,050, leaving it well beneath the weekly peak of $4,147.

Gains made by Bitcoin early in the week after the United States (US) midterm elections have been pared by the correction. The prospect of the Democratic Party assuming control of Congress in January is causing growing concern among market participants, who point to possible regulatory obstacles.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: “Elizabeth Warren, one of the industry’s most vocal critics, is expected to take over the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress convenes in January, although the appointment has not yet been formally confirmed,” and added, “Warren has consistently advocated for tighter oversight of crypto, potentially making the path toward regulatory clarity longer and more restrictive than the industry had hoped.”

October US Nonfarm Payrolls post an increase

An increase of 165,000 in US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for October was reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. Well above the consensus forecast of 65,000, the result points to economic resilience despite continuing price pressures and other macroeconomic concerns.

September’s payroll gain was revised upwards from 29,000 to 60,000, preceding the October NFP result.

Over the period, unemployment eased from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate edged up from 61.8% to 61.9%. The annual change in Average Hourly Earnings, a measure of wage inflation, slowed from a revised 3.2% to 3.1%.

Following the NFP release, Gold’s decline has continued, while Bitcoin’s downtrend appears persistent heading into the weekend. Before entering positions in anticipation of a rebound, bullish traders will monitor how the assets respond at key support: $75,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Gold.

Crypto Finance also noted: “Near term, the market still needs to find its footing, but our medium-term view remains unchanged. The themes that showed real adoption before the sell-off remain the ones to watch, and further weakness may ultimately create better opportunities in the parts of the market where activity and conviction persist,"

Bitcoin technical analysis: Sellers strengthen control

At $76,006, Bitcoin remains below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the short-term outlook bearish. The nearest ceiling is the 200-day EMA at $76,508. Above it sit the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger Bands’ midline at $79,770. Further overhead supply comes from the 50-day EMA at $79,833.

Despite the recent consolidation, indicators suggest continued downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 38 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, reflecting subdued momentum.

The lower Bollinger band at $75,130 provides nearby support; a test could attract buyers seeking to enter on weakness. A daily close above the 200-day EMA at $76,508 would offer the first indication that bearish pressure is subsiding. To clear a route towards the 50-day EMA at $79,833, a recovery would then need to overcome the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger Bands’ midline at $79,770. The broader resistance zone near $84,409 would only come under challenge after a sustained break above that cluster.

Gold technical analysis: Selling erodes gains

Trading at $4,048, Gold faces a concentrated group of moving averages overhead. Resistance comes from the 50-day EMA at $4,154, the 100-day EMA at $4,234 and the 200-day EMA at $4,260. Despite the positive momentum that took prices to highs around $4,147 on Thursday, this configuration leaves the near-term outlook bearish.

Although the MACD has moved into positive territory and the RSI is around 47, Gold remains below the Bollinger Bands’ midline at $4,066. These structural obstacles suggest recovery attempts are likely to meet a ceiling.

The first upside hurdle is the middle Bollinger band near $4,066, with the 50-day EMA at $4,154 next. Beyond that, the 100-day EMA and upper Bollinger band converge at $4,234. Higher resistance lies at the more strategically significant 200-day EMA at $4,260, followed by the descending line break level at $4,346. Below the market, the lower Bollinger band at $3,898 provides the next notable support. A breach would likely leave prices exposed to additional losses within the broader bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)