99th percentile for Bitcoin leverage as Nasdaq correlation strengthens

• 353,000 BTC was the latest reading for Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest. That puts it in the 99th percentile of observations over two years.
• Higher open interest could amplify Bitcoin's price swings by raising the risk of forced liquidations and buying by short sellers, K33 warned.
• At 0.75, Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq stood in the 99th percentile of observations since 2020.

Two-year data show Bitcoin (BTC) approaching a rarely seen leverage level. The leading cryptocurrency continues to fall, according to K33's Tuesday report.

99th percentile: Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest climbs

353,000 BTC was the notional open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures reported by K33’s head of research Vetle Lunde. The rise puts the measure in the 99th percentile of readings over the past two years.

Over the past 30 days, open interest has increased by 12% despite a 10% decline in Bitcoin. According to K33, similarly high open interest was recorded on just 1.2% of trading days over the past two years.

K33 wrote: “The leverage buildout likely reflects a combination of hedging activity and speculative positioning. Funding rates have trended higher on both Binance and Bybit, suggesting growing demand for long exposure as BTC tests key support levels,”

Despite this, current positioning does not signal an overwhelmingly bullish market, the firm cautioned.

A further decline could add to selling pressure on Bitcoin by forcing traders to close long positions, K33 noted. A price recovery, by contrast, could prompt short sellers to buy back positions and support further gains.

Several major market turning points over the past 18 months have coincided with open interest exceeding 350,000 BTC, the report said. These include Bitcoin's October 2025 peak, the November sell-off and the bottoming process in late June 2025.

K33 added: “The historical pattern is noteworthy. Elevated open interest tends to coincide with extended price moves, often preceding reversals or periods of substantial volatility,”

Four-year extreme: Bitcoin's Nasdaq correlation strengthens

Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq reached 0.75 last Thursday, K33 highlighted, putting it in the 99th percentile of readings since 2020. The derivatives build-up coincides with a stronger relationship between Bitcoin and US technology shares.

Last week's equity sell-off made that relationship more evident. On Thursday, Bitcoin lost 5.5% as Nasdaq futures dropped 7.1%, their largest daily fall since March 2020.

The report noted: “Such elevated correlations tend to emerge during periods of pronounced risk aversion, when investors broadly reduce exposure to risky assets,”

Whether the Nasdaq can maintain its recovery could determine Bitcoin's near-term direction, K33's historical analysis suggests.

Bitcoin gained in eight of nine instances in which a strong Nasdaq rebound persisted, delivering a median return of 2.9%. By contrast, all seven cases of a failed recovery saw Bitcoin fall, with a median loss of 21%.

K33 said: "The near-term outlook for BTC thus appears heavily dependent on whether Nasdaq's rebound can be sustained,"

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $73,871 following a 1.4% decline over the past 24 hours.