200-day EMA under pressure: Bitcoin price forecast signals risk of deeper BTC losses

• The 200-day EMA is Bitcoin’s key reference level on Tuesday. Trading nearby, BTC could face deeper losses if it closes decisively below this moving average.
• $398.62 million flowed out of US-listed BTC spot ETFs on a net basis on Monday, extending last week’s withdrawals and signalling softer institutional demand.
• With BTC prices declining as Open Interest rises, bearish positions appear to be building, heightening the risk of further losses.

$76,455 is the key support zone Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching on Tuesday. The cryptocurrency fell nearly 2% the previous day. As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation approaches this critical threshold, a daily close below $76,455 would signal a deeper breakdown. Institutional appetite is also weakening: spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) posted outflows exceeding $398 million on Monday, following last week’s withdrawals. 

The cautious outlook is reinforced by increasing Open Interest (OI) against a backdrop of falling prices. This combination suggests BTC traders are adding bearish positions, highlighting the risk of a more pronounced correction.

$398.62 Million Outflow Signals Weaker Demand

Monday’s $398.62 million outflow from BTC spot ETFs followed net withdrawals of $202.59 million last week, according to SoSoValue data. The figures underline a continued decline in institutional demand and investor appetite so far this week. Should withdrawals persist and accelerate over the rest of the week, BTC could face a deeper correction.

701.44K BTC in Open Interest as Bearish Positions Build

Derivatives indicators point to an increasingly bearish stance among Bitcoin traders. Across all exchanges, BTC OI reached 701.44K BTC in outstanding contracts on Tuesday, its highest reading since September 23, after climbing sharply since mid-October. With prices retreating while OI expands, the data suggests fresh short positions are being opened. This points to a bearish outlook and a greater prospect of further losses for the Crypto King.

At 0.91 on Tuesday, CoinGlass’ BTC long-to-short ratio is approaching its lowest reading in over a month. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, reflecting traders’ bets on a decline in BTC prices.

A previous report noted that historical data points to a negative impact from US congressional elections on both Bitcoin and the President’s party. 

Market sentiment remains under additional pressure from the aftermath of last week’s Binance security breach, constraining attempts by BTC to recover.

$76,455 Support: Bitcoin Technical Outlook at a Critical Level

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $76,553, just above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $76,455. The 100-day EMA at $77,774 is acting as a ceiling. Trading below the shorter EMAs points to a bearish near-term bias. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative. Together, these indicators suggest downside pressure persists even as BTC approaches long-term trend support.

Any advance would first encounter the 100-day EMA near $77,774, then the 50-day EMA at $80,098. The horizontal resistance zone around $85,000 presents a stronger barrier beyond those levels.

The 200-day EMA at $76,455 provides immediate downside support. Holding above it would preserve room for short-term rebounds towards the moving averages overhead. A sustained break below, however, would likely leave BTC vulnerable to a deeper corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)