$75,000 gives way: Bitcoin Price Forecast as BTC retreats ahead of US CPI data

• $75,000 remains above Bitcoin’s price on Tuesday. Last week, BTC closed beneath the key 200-day EMA near $76,444.
• Tuesday’s US CPI release is the next focus for market participants, with scope to reshape Fed rate-hike expectations and spark renewed BTC volatility.
• Monday brought $201.08 million in net withdrawals from US-listed spot ETFs, while Strategy increased its treasury holdings by 1,036 BTC.

$75,000 remains out of reach for Bitcoin (BTC) on Tuesday. Selling pressure persists after last week’s close beneath a key technical support zone. Institutional demand is uneven: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to register outflows, but Strategy (MSTR) has increased its treasury holdings by 1,036 BTC. 

Attention now turns to Tuesday’s US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The figures could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and bring another bout of volatility to the leading cryptocurrency.

US CPI sets the next market test

Whether risk assets such as BTC rebound or suffer a sharp extension of losses could hinge on the closely watched US CPI release.

Expectations that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer strengthened after last week’s US payrolls beat forecasts. Traders now assign a probability of over 80% to another increase in borrowing costs in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This macroeconomic backdrop continues to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and pressure risk assets, including BTC. Dollar bulls, however, are holding off on fresh positions until the US CPI report arrives. 

For further guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory, markets will scrutinise Tuesday’s inflation figures. An upside surprise could strengthen expectations of a rate hike and add to pressure on risk assets.

Geopolitical uncertainty is also restraining risk appetite, as conflicting signals on US-Iran peace talks sustain a risk premium. US President Donald Trump described positive momentum towards ending the war on Iran. He said renewed strikes were quite unlikely and declared the conflict effectively over. 

That assessment was challenged by Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. He rejected reports of active negotiations as fake news and repeated that Washington must accept Tehran’s seven conditions for ending the conflict. The disagreement preserves the geopolitical risk premium, supporting the safe-haven USD and limiting BTC’s recovery prospects.

$201.08 million in ETF outflows signals weaker institutional demand

$201.08 million left BTC spot ETFs on a net basis on Monday, according to SoSoValue, marking a weak start to the week for institutional Bitcoin demand. The withdrawals followed $1.28 billion in outflows last week, the largest weekly total since the end of June. Should withdrawals persist and accelerate through this week, BTC could face additional selling pressure and a deeper price correction.

Corporate buying offered a contrasting signal. Michael Saylor said on Monday that his firm, Strategy, had purchased 1,036 BTC, taking its current holdings to 850,364 BTC alongside $4.9 billion in USD assets. The latest acquisitions indicate that companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin. Such purchases could help cushion further declines in BTC prices.

$74,746: Bitcoin remains below the 200-day EMA

$74,746 is Bitcoin’s trading price on Tuesday. Holding below the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) leaves the near-term outlook bearish. The first ceiling above the current price is the 200-day EMA, around $76,444. Above it, the 100-day EMA near $77,574 and the 50-day EMA close to $79,141 form additional layers of overhead supply.

Momentum also favours the downside: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 36, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero. Together, these indicators suggest that rallies into the cluster of EMAs are still likely to attract selling.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance at the 200-day EMA around $76,444. The next hurdles are the 100-day EMA near $77,574 and the 50-day EMA near $79,141, ahead of a higher horizontal resistance level around $85,000.

With no nearby support identified, a break beneath current levels would point BTC towards the psychological support zone around $70,000 before the price stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)